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机构报告预测:欧元反弹或近尾声 股市仍具吸引力

2017-08-18 11:04:46   中国经济网

瑞银在17日发布的最新报告中指出,投资者不应在现阶段考虑撤出风险资产而转向避险资产。欧元相对美元仍具有良好支撑。但欧元反弹可能已近尾声,上行空间有限,至少在未来数月内是如此。

不应贸然撤出风险资产

瑞银在报告中指出,最新的紧张局势令市场出现震荡,亚洲股市下跌,美国股市隐含波动率指数VIX从10左右攀升至16之上,创下去年美国总统大选以来的最高水平。投资者应对不时出现的紧张局面做好准备。厌恶风险的投资者应考虑对冲,但瑞银不建议投资者撤出风险资产。稳健的全球经济和盈利势头应推动股市继续上涨。

此外,报告还强调,年初的美元大涨席卷了外汇市场,美元贸易加权汇率一度升至14年高点。现在,欧元飙升正吸引市场目光。这证明了瑞银在2016年底所采取的备受争论的观点,即加码欧元兑美元是正确的策略。该机构预期,欧洲央行将在2018年初开始削减债券购买规模。与此同时,对特朗普政府能够在短时间内通过减税或加大基础设施支出的期望也将消退。不过,欧元兑美元涨势迅猛,今年迄今已上升约12%,接近瑞银的6个月预测值1.18.

股市仍具有吸引力

瑞银认为,投资者应该考虑对冲,而非削减全球股票的看涨头寸。

自全球金融危机爆发以来已有10年时间,经济周期目前看起来已进入“成熟”阶段。自2009年以来,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)全国家环球指数已上涨近140%。但即使在如此强劲的涨势之后,倘若因为预期经济周期即将结束而撤出市场将可能得不偿失。企业盈利增长强劲,货币政策依然宽松,估值也不过高。瑞银仍预计,在6个月投资期限内,股票将提供有吸引力的回报,该机构的研究还表明,在过去三次经济衰退(1990年、2001年和2007年)开始前的6至18个月期间,股市平均上涨了19%。

因此,瑞银仍然认为投资者应该继续投资。但随着周期迈入成熟阶段,对冲策略的重要性确实越来越高,尤其是在隐含波动率接近历史低点,以及债券可能不会像之前的周期那样成为股市下跌时的避风港的时候。

分地区来看,宏观环境依然有利于投资者。在通胀低迷的背景下,货币政策保持宽松。全球增长稳固,欧元区GDP达到2011年第二季度以来的最快增速,而新兴市场的增长率料将从2016年的4.4%提速至今年的5%。第二季度美国和欧元区的每股盈利有望上升约10%,因此新兴市场仍受欢迎,数据显示,股票共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)均连续第19周见到资金流入。尤其是,亚洲(日本除外)ETF吸引的资金流入创下两年高点。而美股风光不再,美国股指仍在创新高。但美国股票基金连续第7周遭遇赎回。

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