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周期股领跌 短线调整还是高位见顶

2017-08-11 10:08:30   新华网

近期跟热点抢筹周期股的投资者,昨日难免心塞。在持续大涨后,昨日钢铁、煤炭、有色板块全面回落,且跌幅排名靠前。那么,周期股在持续大涨之后,是否会迎来回调?

周期股领跌

曾连续多日位列A股涨幅榜首的周期类个股,8月10日集体下挫。Wind数据显示,截至昨日收盘,钢铁板块跌2.32%,有色金属板块跌1.91%,煤炭采选板块跌1.79%。个股方面,太钢不锈和鞍钢股份均跌超6%,山西焦化、华友钴业、金钼股份、和胜股份、华钰矿业、西部矿业、新华龙、云海金属、罗平锌电、洛阳钼业、马钢股份均跌逾5%。次新股索通发展昨日结束一字涨停板,收盘跌停。

此前市场热捧的周期股代表中,方大炭素昨日收跌3.83%,报29.85元/股,较8月4日最高价已下跌19.7%。此外,近期连续大涨的神火股份昨日也回调,收盘跌3.79%。

消息面上,8月9日晚间,广晟有色、中孚实业因股价异常波动而发布停牌核查公告,其中中孚实业已回复问询函,今起复牌。中国铝业8月9日晚同时公告称,公司股价较2016年底涨幅约为81%,市值1041亿元,均处于近两年历史高位。近期受国家政策影响,对行业形成利好,同时电价可能推动成本上升,市场预期发生改变,导致行业市场波动较大,市场存在不确定性,提醒投资者注意投资风险。

此外,因为钢铁价格大幅上涨,而被市场预期业绩大幅提升的钢铁个股,却爆出业绩下滑。8月9日晚间,安阳钢铁公告半年报,期内实现营业收入115.26亿元,同比增长0.4%;净利润2776万元,同比大幅下降70.59%。从安阳钢铁前十大股东持股变动来看,全国社保基金一一六组合二季度退出前十大股东。

商品涨势短期延续

尽管周期股表现不佳,但相关商品昨日在期货市场的表现仍可圈可点。当日,硅铁主力合约1801强势涨停,收盘报6488元/吨,涨幅5.02%。动力煤主力合约1801也延续近日上涨势头,再度大涨3.10%。此外,主力合约中,锰硅、热卷、沪铝、沪镍、玻璃、焦煤、螺纹、焦炭均涨幅较大。

值得关注的是,沪铝主力合约1710已连续五日上涨,累计涨幅近12%,刷新2012年4月以来新高。

市场方面,据金联创分析师称,从上周末开始,钢坯价格连续大幅拉涨,上周五至今已累涨200元/吨。在各品种基本面偏乐观的背景下,河北冬季限产这一消息也是瞬间引燃钢市的强心剂。此外,全国其他省市也相继出台采暖季环保限产或大气污染整治专项行动,环保限产政策超市场预期,钢价将受到有力提振,加之取缔“地条钢”、安全生产等各项督查的开展,短期市场看涨情绪渐浓,后期需要看政策的持续性及供需关系变化。

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