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地方债有望成下半年政策焦点 机构配置动力增强

2017-07-26 11:15:03   中国经济网

专家表示,要严格落实地方政府债务中低风险地区债务风险管控财政奖惩问责机制,集中开展地方政府融资担保清理整改,有序降低债务率和债务规模

■本报记者 苏诗钰

7月24日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。会议强调,要积极稳妥化解累积的地方政府债务风险,有效规范地方政府举债融资,坚决遏制隐性债务增量。

7月25日,招商证券一位分析师表示,金融监管以及金融去杠杆在下半年应该会有适当的“缓和”,而地方政府债券问题将成为下半年政策“焦点”,下半年的经济增长以及信贷需求可能会遭遇边际放缓,这很可能降低金融机构风险偏好,增加债券配置的动力会进一步增强。

财政部发布的数据显示,今年上半年,地方政府债券发行规模约1.86万亿元,相较去年同期3.58万亿元规模几乎减半。财政部有关负责人表示,主要原因包括地方政府未置换存量债务大量减少、地方财政部门主动调整地方债发行进度和节奏等。此外,今年上半年地方债平均发行利率为3.85%,较去年同期3.03%上升82个基点。

财政部相关负责人表示,地方债利率上行主要原因有:一是今年债券市场总体利率水平上升,6月底记账式国债平均收益率为3.51%,较去年6月底、12月底分别上升了84个、61个基点;二是美联储今年以来两次升息,带动全球市场利率中枢上升,对我国金融市场利率产生一定的向上拉动作用。

7月25日,中国国际经济交流中心经济研究部副研究员刘向东在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,化解地方债务风险首先要摸清地方债务产生的根源,堵住地方大规模举债的冲动,为此政府通过授人以渔,让地方有强健的财政基础,然后强化财政纪律,正本清源;然后再采取债转股等市场化办法合理化解地方债务风险,有效规范地方债务风险重要性,在于提高地方经济发展的韧性和财政可持续性,避免酿造局部危机和系统性风险。隐性债务风险将会危及地方社会稳定,动摇执政根基,因此需要加以遏制蔓延,让纳税人的钱合规使用而不被滥用。

就如何化解地方债,浙江财经大学经济系主任文雁兵昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,对于存量债务,要严格实施地方政府债务高风险地区化债计划管理,严格落实地方政府债务中低风险地区债务风险管控财政奖惩问责机制,确保债务资金在合理区间内运行,集中开展地方政府融资担保清理整改,有序降低债务率和债务规模。

“对于或有债务,要厘清政府与市场边界,加快推进‘实体类’融资平台公司转型,进一步规范融资平台公司融资行为管理,坚决遏制隐性债务增量。一方面,要切实加强融资平台公司管理,规范政府与社会资本合作行为;另一方面,要健全规范地方政府举债融资机制。同时,要创新和探索地方债务风险控制和化解新模式,例如债务证券化和债权质押融资等。”文雁兵告诉记者。

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