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上半年能源消费总体回暖 新旧动能持续转换

2017-07-24 09:29:04   中国经济网

煤炭消费逐步下降是一个长期趋势,从中长期看,我国煤炭消费逐步进入了峰值平台期。去年下半年以来煤炭需求回升、价格上涨,是正常的短期波动;

我国能源结构调整速度进一步加快,可再生能源已进入规模化发展新阶段。目前,我国水电、风电、光伏发电装机容量已稳居全球首位

7月21日,国家能源局召开新闻发布会,介绍上半年能源形势和可再生能源及风电、光伏发电发展情况。国家能源局发展规划司副司长李福龙表示,上半年,我国能源消费增速比去年同期明显回升,增长动力持续转换,能源结构不断优化,转型步伐加快。

煤炭消费比重长期呈下降趋势

上半年,我国能源消费总体回暖。具体来看,上半年,煤炭消费转为正增长,全国煤炭消费量约为18.3亿吨,同比增长1%左右,除了建材行业外,电力、钢铁、化工行业用煤同比均为正增长;石油消费平稳,全国石油表观消费量约为3亿吨,同比增长约5%;用电增速大幅回升,全社会用电量为2.95万亿千瓦时,同比增长6.3%,增速比去年同期提高3.6个百分点。

与此同时,能源结构进一步优化。煤炭消费比重下降,上半年,煤炭消费比重大约为59.8%,比去年同期下降0.6个百分点;清洁能源消费比重提高,天然气和非化石能源消费比重合计为20%,比去年底提高0.3个百分点。

上半年能源需求的变化折射经济发展新旧动能持续转换。数据显示,上半年,二产用电比重大约为71%,比去年末下降0.1个百分点;三产和居民用电比重合计为27.3%,比去年末提高0.2个百分点。新兴产业及与居民消费升级相关的行业对用电增长的拉动作用增强。“这一增强一减弱,说明我国供给侧结构性改革、经济转型发展、创新发展的效果正在逐步呈现。”李福龙分析说。

有专家称过去三年煤炭消费量持续下降,表明我国煤炭消费已经达到峰值。然而去年下半年以来煤价再度上涨,今年上半年消费增速转为正增长,这是否意味着新一轮煤炭需求回升?对此,李福龙表示,煤炭消费逐步下降是一个长期趋势。从中长期看,我国煤炭消费逐步进入了峰值平台期,这个平台期可能持续较长时间,在此期间,每年的年度煤炭消费量由于经济、气候等相关因素可能出现一些波动。去年下半年以来煤炭需求回升、价格上涨,是正常的短期波动。

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