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研究显示美联储或于2020至2023年完成“缩表”

2017-07-12 18:04:02   新华社

新华社华盛顿7月10日电(记者高攀 金旼旼)美国纽约联邦储备银行10日发布的一份研究报告显示,美联储可能于2020年至2023年完成缩减资产负债表(“缩表”)的计划,届时美联储资产负债表的规模将维持在2万亿美元以上,远高于2008年金融危机前不到1万亿美元的水平。

报告显示,根据6月份对华尔街一级交易商和其他市场人士的调查结果,纽约联邦储备银行的市场研究团队假定到今年底,美联储持有的证券投资组合规模仍维持在4.2万亿美元不变,从2018年开始“缩表”,基于此对美联储长期资产负债表的规模作出了3种情景预测。

在长期资产负债表规模较大的情形下,美联储预计将于2020年第一季度完成“缩表”,届时美联储持有的证券投资组合规模约为3.5万亿美元;在长期资产负债表规模较小的情形下,美联储预计将于2023年第三季度完成“缩表”,届时美联储持有的证券投资组合规模约为2.4万亿美元;在中等规模情形下,美联储预计将于2021年第四季度完成“缩表”,届时美联储持有的证券投资组合规模约为2.9万亿美元。

美联储主席耶伦上个月表示,如果美国经济增长符合预期,美联储可能会“相对较快”地执行“缩表”计划。但美联储上周公布的6月份货币政策例会纪要显示,美联储官员对于何时启动“缩表”计划尚未达成一致。目前多数市场分析人士预计,美联储最早将于9月宣布开始“缩表”。

(责编:庄红韬、赵爽)

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