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全球经济罕见同步复苏 下半年A股表现有望超越海外市场

2017-07-10 10:12:58   

⊙记者 朱贤佳 ○编辑 王诚诚

花旗研究部近日发布报告指出,全球经济正罕见地“同步”复苏,这是7年以来首次。花旗首席全球股票策略师罗伯特·布克兰德表示:“我们预计所有主要市场今年都将报告EPS(每股收益)增长。”对于未来市场的热点,多家机构指出,过去一年半,A股相对全球市场表现落后,未来有望加速超越美欧股市。

“七翻身”行情可期

“五穷六绝七翻身”,这是证券行业的一种说法。7月初,中金公司发布的一份报告明确表示,A股配置价值提升,下半年将A股从标配上调至超配。

中金公司认为,目前国内短端利率有下行空间是未来股票市场上行的主线。当前经济和企业盈利平稳,但增速有所放缓,资产定价的博弈已由盈利主导切换至利率主导。在金融去杠杆、监管趋严的背景下,短端利率迅速上升,6月份甚至一度出现倒挂。

往前看,较高的短端利率缺乏支撑,平坦的利率收益率曲线大概率将变得陡峭。此外,投资者对维持市场稳定以及国企、财政、社保等制度性改革加速落地的预期升温,从而提升了市场风险偏好。中金公司认为,短端利率下行有助于流动性改善,股债均将受益。若市场风险偏好提升,股票受益程度更大。与此同时,7月份,上市公司即将开始公布半年报,相关题材也有望为行情添一把火。

反观海外市场,过去一段时间已经累积了相当的涨幅。今年上半年,在美国科技股及保健股的引领下,标普500指数上涨8.2%,创下2013年上半年以来最大增幅。纳斯达克指数则创下2009年上半年以来最高涨幅。在此背景下,空头的呼声也越来越高。值得关注的是,2016年3月至2017年6月,全球市场同步上涨16个月,而A股市场的涨幅相对落后。分析人士指出,从A股整体盈利水平等指标来看,未来A股市场将会逐步加速,超越海外市场的表现。

人工智能有望引领新周期

布克兰德指出,未来12个月全球股市平均回报率将达9%,看好科技板块。他表示:“这轮持续8年的全球牛市可能时间长了点,但我不认为这轮涨势即将结束。”此外,诸多机构也指出,在人工智能题材的推动下,科技股有望整体跑赢大势。

普华永道会计师事务所发布的最新报告显示,在人工智能技术的推动下,到2030年全球GDP将增长14%,其中中国和北美地区有望成为人工智能的最大受益者。普华永道的这篇报告预测,到2030年,人工智能将为全球经济贡献15.7万亿美元。中国和北美将在这波人工智能浪潮中受益最明显。相关技术的发展带动能让中国的GDP到2030年增长26%,北美也能增长14.5%。

种种迹象表明,中国在人工智能领域的研究步伐正不断加快。7月5日,百度AI开发者大会在北京召开,其全力打造的Apollo自动驾驶开放平台成为现场最具人气的热点。这并非特例,国内人工智能从人脸识别到智能驾驶正在全面加速。有分析指出,AI有望引领一轮新周期,在此推动下,相关公司将获得巨大成长空间。

(责编:王子侯、乔雪峰)

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