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专家:中国宏观经济环境持续改善 全年将现“前高后稳”
我国宏观经济环境持续改善
中国宏观经济研究院 刘雪燕 杜秦川
1至5月份经济数据显示,我国宏观经济运行持续好转,呈现“供给运行平稳、内生需求回暖、民生指标亮眼、价格水平温和”的总体特征。经济增长的内在动力改变,经济增速难免出现一定幅度的回落,但从部分约束条件和先行指标走势来看,预计全年经济将呈现“前高后稳”的走势。
一、经济运行的总体特征
(一)供给运行总体平稳但新的支撑力量尚待形成
5月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%,与4月份持平。工业增长平稳,但支撑力量仍依赖于一季度基建投资和房地产投资的后续影响,终端需求回暖的拉动尚未有所体现。一是装备制造业支撑工业增长。5月份装备制造业同比增长10.3%。二是下游制造业仍未启动。以食品制造业、服装业为代表的下游行业仍受制于有效需求不足,1至5月份同比增长继续呈现下滑态势。服务业中占比较高的房地产行业和金融行业降温加大服务业下行压力。二季度以来股票市场震荡下行,较一季度末跌幅一度近3%。债券市场景气度整体上也震荡走弱,企业债券弃发数量和规模激增。
(二)内生需求动力回暖
主要有以下表现:首先,消费的内生增长动力有所回升。1至5月社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.3%,其中5月份与4月份持平,但消费的内生增长动力却是回升的。其次,投资的自主增长动力有所增强。1至5月份,制造业投资开始回升,民间投资开始进入主战场。1至5月份制造业民间投资增长4.9%,增速比1至4月提高0.5个百分点,且表现为从冶炼到汽车、装备制造等行业的普遍好转。此外,虽然二季度以来第三产业投资增速下降,但是其中符合消费升级方向的教育、卫生、文化等行业投资持续加快,月度增速均在20个百分点以上。
(三)民生指标表现亮眼
一是就业稳定增长。有关部门统计数据显示,前5个月城镇新增就业实现了599万人,比去年同期增长了22万人,就业的年度计划目标已经完成54.4%。全国城镇调查失业率和31个大城市的城镇调查失业率保持在5%以下。二是居民收入增长较快。一季度,居民收入增长7%,超过GDP增速0.1个百点,扭转了上年同期和全年居民收入增速慢于GDP增速的态势。
(四)价格上涨温和
1至5月份,CPI涨幅为1.4%,新涨价0.7%,扣除食品和能源后的核心CPI涨幅为2.1%。1至5月份,PPI涨幅为6.8%,其中新涨价1.2%,5月当月为5.5%,PPI全年同比和环比高点大概率已过,处于持续回落态势。
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