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中国将在2030年前跻身高收入国家

2017-06-23 13:25:55   

科技日报北京6月22日电 (记者李钊)由澳大利亚和中国学者联合编著的“中国经济前沿”丛书·《中国经济增长的新源泉(第1卷):改革、资源能源与气候变化》发布会在北京举行。该书从供给侧角度出发,讨论中国如何启动经济增长的新源泉,并预测中国将在2030年前跻身高收入国家行列。其英文版已于2016年年中在澳大利亚先行发布。

书中指出,在全球经济波动不定之时,中国的变革已经开始。2007年末全球陷入经济危机后,发达国家的经济增长持续低迷。中国以外的其他发展中国家的经济则呈现各不相同的发展历程。许多发展中国家在发达国家面临种种问题的情况下,继续保持相当强劲的经济增长势头。

书中高度肯定中国重视的机构建设,以引导自身及高收入国家向发展中国家进行投资。在“一带一路”倡议下,亚洲基础设施投资银行、新的发展银行、丝路基金及一些金融机构先后建立,打破了投资障碍。中国的努力已经推动发达国家积极提供资金用于支持发展中国家的基础设施建设。

书中认为,中国如能加快改革,实现结构再平衡,去杠杆、改善收入分配以促使消费率回升,推进行政体制改革以降低政府管理成本,预计2016年—2020年能够保持年均6.2%左右的增长率;2021年—2030年还会出现增长再加速,达到7.5%的年均增长率;2030年之前将进入高收入国家行列。这将是一条更可持续、更有利于全社会福利最大化的发展路径。

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