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猪肉价格回落致利好消失 养殖业上市公司暴利不再

2017-06-22 17:33:29   中国经济网

生猪价格暴涨带来的养殖上市公司的“暴利”行情在今年上半年开始遇冷。据Wind数据统计显示,截止到目前,共有36家农业公司发布半年报业绩预报,其中,有5家上市公司预计净利润最大变动幅度将超过100%。

和此前拥有生猪养殖类业务上市公司业绩暴涨不同的是,随着生猪价格的回落,这些企业的净利润增幅开始回调。

从数据显示来看,拥有饲料业务的企业在上半年获得可观的利润,预计上半年净利润超过亿元的上市公司共有10家,其中,饲料生产企业占据了可观份额。“公司饲料销量、收入保持稳定增长。一季度公司饲料销量同比增长,预计上半年饲料销量、收入保持稳定增长;公司饲料产品质量稳定、结构优化,毛利率有所提升,利润增长有保证。”这些上市公司提及,不过,也有企业提及,公司报告期内饲料业务盈利能力有所下滑,其他业务保持稳定发展。

和饲料企业处于同一产业链的生猪养殖企业虽然也有可观的净利润,但和之前的净利润同比大比例增幅不同,这些企业的净利润同比预计增长幅度有所回升。

6月份以来,有多家拥有生猪养殖相关业务的上市公司发布了5月的销售简报。金新农公告显示,5月份生猪销量合计1.93万头,收入合计2863.44万元,销量环比下降30.07%,收入环比下降38.54%,5 月猪价整体呈下降趋势;温氏股份也提及,5月销售商品肉猪162.95万头,收入27.76亿元,销售均价14.16元/公斤,环比变动分别为5.31%、-3.51%、-7.39%,同比变动分别为 24.01%、-13.25%、-32.57%。

对于当下的销售情况,拥有生猪养殖类业务的上市公司皆提醒投资者注意行业价格波动带来的影响,“生猪市场价格的大幅下降或上升,将会导致公司盈利水平的大幅下降或上升,对公司的经营业绩产生重大影响”。

新发地最新一周的研报也显示,当前出现的肉价波动,并不能改变肉价已经进入下降区间的“大势”,建议养猪场不要因为近期出现一些波动就调整自己的预期,仍然是顺时出栏为好:“进入6月,猪价开启频繁涨跌模式。上半月猪价强势反弹,截止到6月14日,全国生猪出栏均价在13.86元/公斤,对比月初的12.94元/公斤上涨7.11%;进入下半月,屠企收购压力略有缓解后,猪价进入小幅下行模式,然而短期几天,北方已止跌企稳,部分地区再次反弹。”

卓创资讯最新的研报认为,夏季作为传统的消费淡季,猪价大幅上涨的可能性本就不大,另外随着暑假的到来,下游消费量会进一步压缩。预计今年7月大场出栏量较大,猪价持续上涨可能性较小。“另外养殖单位还需注意,夏季肥白条需求量偏低,近期多数屠企对收购体重要求严格,超重猪多有罚款,切莫压栏等价造成不必要的损失。建议养殖单位保持心态,理智顺势出栏。”

除了猪肉价格之外,对于消费者而言,眼下最受关注的农产品还有鸡蛋。

新发地上述研报提及,6月16日,新发地市场鸡蛋的批发价是2.68元/斤,比6月9日的2.44元/斤上涨9.84%;比2017年5月16日的2.16元/斤上涨24.07%;比2016年6月9日的3.16元/斤下降15.20%。周环比明显上涨;月环比大幅上涨;年同比大幅下降。上周末,年同比下降29.28%,本周同比降幅明显缩小。记者 桂小笋

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