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人大研究报告预计今年GDP增速为6.7%

2017-06-19 10:39:45   经济参考报

“上半年中国宏观经济运行延续了2016年下半年以来企稳向好的态势,多项宏观经济指标趋于改善,名义GDP增速连续5个季度回升,经济运行的微观基础进一步增强,经济结构持续优化,经济总体实现良好开局。”中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员刘凤良17日说。他表示,这不仅标志着中国经济成功探底回升,风险和压力得到初步释放,同时也意味着供给侧结构性调整初见成效。

当天,由中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院、经济学院、中国诚信信用管理股份有限公司联合主办的“中国宏观经济论坛(2017年中期)”报告会在京举行。刘凤良代表课题组发布了中国宏观经济报告。

报告指出,2017年上半年,国内生产总值为180683亿元,GDP实际增速6.9%,比上年同期和全年均提高0.2个百分点。与此同时,GDP平减指数大幅回升,由上年底的1.2上升到4.8;随着平减指数的回升,名义GDP由上年底的8%攀升至11.8%,比上年同期高出4.8个百分点,为2012年上半年以来的最高,并持续高于实际GDP增长。

“根据以往经济周期的情况来看,平减指数的回升、名义GDP持续高于实际GDP增速,是宏观经济企稳向好的重要标志。”刘凤良表示。

报告同时指出,中国经济在反弹进程中表现出更广范围和更多层面上的分化特征。上游行业、出口部门和国有企业持续向好,中下游行业和民间经济还面临着总需求不振和投资机会不畅,中国全面的总需求上升引领产能持续扩张型的新周期到来还需时日。

课题组判断,在现有宏观政策调整基调下,预计下半年基建投资和房地产投资增速将会放缓,而民间投资的反弹力度还有待观察,全国固定资产投资的下行压力将会逐渐显现;与此同时,随着居民收入增速的持续放缓,消费增长受到一定的制约。但国际周期会在短期内提供较强的支撑作用。总体而言,本轮“不对称W型调整”的第二个底部已于2016年底至2017年初形成,并呈现底部波动企稳特征。在假定财政赤字率3%、汇率7%的水平上,以及在国际经济复苏和国内政策叠加的基础上,2017全年GDP增速可达6.7%。

报告指出,尽管我国经济在今年仍有较强支撑,但是明后年经济压力依然存在。建议进一步深化改革解决国内经济问题启动新周期。在此过程中,需要短期的金融财政政策进行配合。

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