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财经观察:中美贸易失衡问题症结何在

2017-06-15 17:25:34   新华社

贸易不平衡问题长期以来是中美双边经贸关系绕不开的一环。中美贸易不平衡到底原因何在?有什么办法可以改善这一局面?近日,中美智库专家、学者在此间举行的中美高端智库研讨会上,就这些话题展开了深入讨论。

中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长张宇燕在12日举行的研讨会首场活动中表示,中美贸易不平衡的主要原因是中美经济结构的不同。他说,中国经济在高速增长阶段存在内需不足、储蓄率高等问题,而美国经济以服务业为主,储蓄率低、消费水平高。

此外,随着全球价值链的转移,越来越多外资企业赴华投资,中国逐渐成为全球价值链中的重要环节。张宇燕说,从2010年至2015年,在华外资企业出口占中国出口总额的50%左右,中国仅从加工贸易中获取了较低的附加值。

国家发改委宏观经济研究院副院长毕吉耀告诉记者,中国经常账户顺差占国内生产总值(GDP)比重已经从金融危机前的约10%降到目前的2%以下。他说,从经济学角度来讲,中国的贸易是平衡的,并没有刻意通过推动出口来拉动经济增长。

毕吉耀说,各国的贸易失衡问题都是由产业分工、要素禀赋等结构性因素造成的。如果美国不从中国进口,也会从其他地方进口。

美国智库传统基金会研究员赖利·沃尔特斯也指出,美国要减少与中国的货物贸易逆差,一种方法是让中国购买更多美国产品,另一种方法是减少从中国的进口,改从其他国家进口。他告诉记者,考虑到中美货物贸易逆差规模较大,第一种方法并不现实。而第二种方法则有可能推高美国进口产品的价格,甚至可能导致美国贸易失衡问题进一步恶化。他说,减少贸易逆差不应成为中美经贸关系的重点。

毕吉耀说,随着中美经济结构的变化,未来贸易逆差也会出现变化。他指出,近年来中国对美国的服务贸易逆差持续增长。中国商务部统计数据显示,2016年中国对美服务贸易逆差高达557亿美元,占中国服务贸易逆差总额的23%左右。美国是中国服务贸易第一大逆差来源地。

他还表示,中国经济正处于转型升级阶段,未来劳动密集型产品将进一步减少,加工贸易的比重将进一步降低。他说,如果美方能放松对华高科技出口管制,双方货物和服务贸易的逆差会逐步缩小,达到可持续水平。

毕吉耀还说,近期中美双方达成的经济合作百日计划早期收获为双方经贸发展明确了方向,增强了双方的信心。

张宇燕表示,经济合作百日计划为双方解决经贸摩擦搭建了初期的对话平台,有助于双方采取缓冲措施来解决经贸冲突,避免贸易战。他还强调,双方可以利用世界贸易组织等国际机构的规则来解决贸易过程中的问题,而不应紧盯贸易失衡问题。

他说,中国继续扩大对外开放,有序推进金融、医疗、养老等服务业的开放,逐步降低农产品及能源等产品的进口壁垒,推动中美双边投资协定谈判,这些措施不仅有利于中国经济健康发展,也有助于解决中美经贸关系中的关切点。而对于美方来说,提高储蓄率可以从根本上缓解中美贸易失衡问题。

美国传统基金会研究员托丽·怀廷也提到贸易规则的重要性。她说,中美贸易的关键点在于确定双方共同遵守的规则,这既可以是世贸组织下的规则,也可以是双边制定的准则。

在研讨会上,中国驻芝加哥总领事洪磊呼吁中美双方本着相互尊重、平等互利的原则,扩大市场开放,促进双向投资,进一步加强中美地方经贸合作,坚持通过对话协商妥善处理经贸摩擦,以确保中美经贸关系沿着正确的方向前进。(新华社美国得梅因6月13日电)

(责编:庄红韬、赵爽)

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