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量价齐跌持续 5月北京楼市收尾惨淡

2017-06-09 17:03:35   经济参考报

据伟业我爱我家集团市场研究院统计,2017年第22周(5月29日-6月4日),北京全市二手住宅共网签1445套,环比第21周下降50.9%,七日网签量分别为37套、17套、565套、346套、378套、55套、47套。

虽然上周网签量降幅超过一半的重要原因在于有“端午”假期的影响,真正工作日只有三天,但市场下行的趋势却是毋庸置疑。从“317”新政后的周网签量走势可以看出,目前北京二手住宅的周网签量较新政前已有大幅下降。

另一个显著的证明则是5月31日仅565套的网签量。在以往各月中,当月最后一个工作日的网签量基本都是明显高于其他日子的,比如4月各日网签量在800套上下,4月28日则达到了1094套;3月各日都在1000套左右,3月31日却高达2237套。而在刚刚过去的5月,北京每日的二手住宅网签量基本都在600套以下,最后一个工作日也不例外,可见,当下北京二手房市场确实已经跌落低谷。

在交易量明显滑落的同时,二手房的价格也很难再维持过往的高位。现在北京二手房价格已经出现了下降苗头,5月全市二手房均价下跌了2%左右,随着交易量的持续低迷,未来价格将出现更明显的回落。

新建商品房方面,据伟业我爱我家集团市场研究院统计,受“端午”假期影响,2017年第22周(5月29日-6月4日)北京全市新建商品住宅(不含保障房)仅网签312套,环比第21周下降了64.7%。其中自住型商品房网签9套,环比下降97.8%;别墅网签65套,环比下降30.1%;其他新建商品住宅网签238套,环比下降38.3%。综合来看,21周、22周的平均网签量为598套,与过往几周一样位于低位,北京新房市场网签量持续在低位徘徊。

伟业我爱我家集团副总裁胡景晖表示,随着时间的推移,一连串新政的叠加效应正在持续发酵,逐步加深,到5月时北京二手房市场低开之后已经不再高走,反而惨淡收尾。从上周5月低收、6月低开的数据来看,6月北京的二手房市场恐怕也难有起色,降温还将继续。当然,由于目前市场已经下降到了一个很低的水平,所以网签量继续大幅回落的空间已经不大,低位徘徊应是接下来北京二手房市场的主旋律。

而在新建商品房方面,胡景晖表示,在政策对开发商销售的严格管理下,在政策对购房者资格与支付能力的严格限制下,北京新房市场目前已经完全进入了一个低温且平稳的发展时期,网签量上下波动很小,唯一能够引起规模变化的自住型商品房在上半年也没有太多表现。总的来说,新政对北京新房市场调控效果是非常显著的,在政策基调不变的情况下,这种调控必然还会持续下去,新房市场的平稳趋势将继续维持,唯一能打破这种平稳的恐怕在于自住房。自推出以后,自住房产品都是在下半年发力,今年北京已经推出了多宗自住房用地,待下半年这些项目入市,新房交易量有望明显增加,新房的供应结构也将得到进一步优化,房价也将得到有效平抑。 记者 李静

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