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穆迪下调中国评级这件事重要吗?

2017-05-28 20:11:24   

大家好,我是夏宾,端午节到来之前,想跟大家聊聊过去一周金融市场发生的两件事儿。

第一件,5月24号本周三,国际评级巨头穆迪对中国干了一件之前28年从来没有干过的事情——下调了中国主权信用评级,由Aa3下调至A1。

这表示在穆迪的评级模式里,中国的投资级别从高级掉到了中上级,也就是说穆迪认为,假如你现在购买中国国债,未来中国政府还本付息的能力可能要下降了。

有朋友要说了,记得去年3月份穆迪就曾下调过中国的信用评级,但请注意了,去年穆迪下调的是中国信用评级展望,而现在下调的是中国的信用评级,这可是两件不同的事情。

下调展望是觉得你未来可能不行,下调信用评级是觉得你现在就有问题。孰轻孰重,大家自有判断了吧。

这次穆迪下调信用评级的原因是觉得中国债务将进一步攀升,经济增长将放缓,对于这些说辞,中国财政部、国家发改委、国家统计局纷纷都给怼了回去,表示穆迪的评级方法不当,计算有误,缺乏常识,中国债务风险整体可控,2016年中国政府债务率是36.7%,远低于欧盟设定的债务率60%的警戒线,而且中国政府认为,未来三年这个数字(36.7%)不会有太大变化。

咱们谈点实际的,穆迪的评级真的重要吗?

刚才说到去年3月份穆迪就下调过中国的评级展望,当时财政部部长楼继伟就在公开表示,我们不care!楼继伟说:“希腊出那么大问题的时候,它的评级当时高于中国呢!”言下之意,大家都懂的。

“股神”巴菲特在2016年的股东大会上也说过,穆迪这种信用评级根本是错误的机制。

那咱们再看看跟穆迪并称国际评级巨头的惠誉怎么说,25号本周四,惠誉发布报告维持中国A+评级不变,展望为稳定,看来巨头们的步调也不太一致嘛。

反正,不管他们怎么评,至少中国市场现在没有受到太大影响。从市场表现来看,人民币汇率反而走高,股票市场上沪指也重新回到了3100点。

另外一件事情,本周四凌晨美联储公布了5月份的货币政策会议纪要,释放了两个信号,一个是加息要继续,另一个是今年要缩表。

加息大家都很熟悉了,只是这缩表到底是个啥?

缩表的全称是缩减资产负债表。举个例子好理解,以前有钱庄,你去钱庄存银子,钱庄发你一张银票,银子成了钱庄的资产,而你手里的银票就是钱庄的负债。

票越开越多,银子越来越多,资产负债也就越来越多。

现在咱们把美联储想象成一个大钱庄,现在它要做的就是减少库存的银子,收回银票,也就是减少市面上流通的美元。

物以稀为贵。美联储缩表的直接影响就是美元少了,美元贵了,全球的资本都会闻风而动地涌向美国,投向美元的怀抱,对于包括中国在内的新兴市场而言就应该要注意潜在的资本流动风险。但从今年国家外汇局发布的一系列数据来看,中国应对资本流动的能力还是不错的。

好了,今天就说到这里,我是夏宾,期待再与大家见面,祝假期快乐! (夏宾)

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