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梅新育:开放环境下审视中美缩表

2017-05-22 15:38:12   

作者 梅新育(商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员、中新经纬特约专家)

美国克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特5月18日发表讲话称,她支持今年开始缩减资产负债表。美联储启动“缩表”已成定局,不确定的只是时间、规模和路径选择。而中国人民银行(以下简称央行)在今年年初事实上已经实施了一定规模的“缩表”操作,在“稳健中性货币政策”路线下,央行总资产由1月末的34.8万亿元下降到3月末的33.7万亿元,缩表约1.1万亿元。不过,央行在最新发布的2017年第一季度《中国货币政策执行报告》中表示,中国央行“缩表”并不一定意味着收紧银根,不宜简单与国外央行的“缩表”类比。

美国缩表 初级产品狂欢行情面临终结

作为当前世界最大的经济体,美国央行逆转此前延续多年的资产快速膨胀进程,对美国国内和全球经济的影响注定不可低估。

美国央行“缩表”对经济影响最直观的表现将在于通过紧缩流动性打击初级产品行情和资产市场泡沫。通货膨胀的本质是过多的货币追逐过少的商品,无论货币追逐的商品是实物商品还是服务、金融资产,这一点都是成立的。

从2008年至今,美联储总资产从8991亿美元扩张至4.5万亿美元,增长约5倍,因美国央行资产快速膨胀而释放出来的巨额基础货币,最终对这一时期全世界初级产品价格和资产市场泡沫快速膨胀发挥了关键作用。

2012年,以美元计价的国际贸易商品价格普遍下跌,从2002年启动的初级产品牛市结束;2014年下半年,油价雪崩,初级产品市场全面进入熊市,天量游资更多地涌向证券、房地产等其它资产。2016年第二季度以来,初级产品行情强劲反弹,带动中国通货膨胀显著回升,很大程度上也要归因于美联储在去年几乎整整一年时间里按兵不动,直到年末方才加息。而在美国央行“缩表”全面启动之后,上述领域的市场参与者们就将不得不直面盛宴终结了。

中国缩表 内外向部门优势或大反转

虽然央行缩表不意味着紧缩,但中国央行“缩表”会影响国民经济中内向部门和外向部门先天竞争优势。外向部门在中国国民经济中曾经占有的先天优势地位始于1990年代。当时,央行主要通过国内信贷和外汇占款两条渠道释放基础货币,而维持人民币事实单一钉住美元制度的支柱是严格的资本管制和中央银行对外汇市场的强烈干预。在当时的强制性结售汇制度下,央行必须无条件地全盘买进企业卖出的外汇,导致外汇占款在基础货币供给中所占比重日趋上升。1993年,我国基础货币中,国内信贷占93%,外汇占款占7%;1994年以后,外汇占款所占比例便迅速增长到75%以上。

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