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楼市调控须分而治之 三四线楼市短期回暖库存仍高企

2017-05-12 10:51:45   经济参考报

今年3月以来,一场严格的楼市调控风潮席卷全国,数十个城市出台了上百次房地产调控政策。值得注意的是,本轮出台调控政策的城市不断扩容,从北上广深等一线城市,到南京、杭州、青岛、厦门等热点二线城市,再到环京、环沪、环深、甚至环合肥、环厦门等热点城市周边的三四线城市,调控政策不断加码。

在一二线热点城市调控已趋“顶配”的背景下,三四线城市的住宅市场出现了明显的回暖迹象。然而,一些业内人士认为,多数三四线城市仍面临居民购买力、人口、产业竞争力不足等问题,去库存前景似乎并不乐观。

  热点城市楼市降温三四线城市楼市回暖

3月以来,数十个城市出台了上百次房地产调控政策。值得注意的是,本轮出台调控政策的城市不断扩容,从一二线城市扩围至环热点城市的三四线城市,调控政策不断加码。

此轮调控中,一二线城市从限购、限贷、限价和限售等“四限”入手,调控力度空前,趋向“顶配”。在此背景下,一二线热点城市成交量锐减,三四线城市的住宅市场出现了明显的回暖迹象,一些强三四线城市的楼市甚至出现了供销两旺的景象。

国家统计局数据显示,今年一季度房地产开发投资完成额同比增长9.1%,增速较上一季度略有提升;新开工面积同比增长11.6%,上个季度的新开工面积则同比增长10.4%。行业分析人士指出,一季度房地产开发投资再度小幅增长,热销三四线城市补库存是重要原因。

多位业内人士认为,在热点城市受政策压抑之下,三四线城市会迎来良机。中金公司发布的报告预测,三四线城市2017年上半年仍将表现强劲,销售均价有望同比增长5%-10%,销售面积同比增长10%-15%。

今年一季度的数据佐证了以上观点。中国指数研究院的数据显示,2017年第一季度,一线城市新房成交量同比下降16.3%,三线城市则同比增长了35.84%。北京从“317新政”出台一个月后,房价出现18个月来的首次环比下跌;而多个三四线城市新建住宅价格却环比大涨,如广东清远3月房价环比上涨了18.28%,位列环比涨幅榜第一,福建漳州房价也环比上涨了15.76%。

福州大学房地产研究中心主任王阿忠认为,热点城市严厉的调控措施,使得部分资金出现外溢,而目前国内大部分三四线城市的地产开发商均以消化库存、回笼资金的策略为主,新增库存极少,加之政策上也有所倾斜,使得一些三四线城市的去库存效果良好。

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