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食品项走弱或致4月物价数据保持低位

2017-05-04 11:21:48   经济参考报

原标题:CPI和PPI“剪刀差”有望收窄

《经济参考报》记者综合多方预测,4月居民消费价格指数(CPI)涨幅或在1.1%左右。专家表示,食品价格走弱可能导致CPI数据保持低位。随着生产资料价格近期下滑,工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)或出现明显回落,CPI和PPI之间的“剪刀差”有望收窄。

商务部公布的每周食用农产品价格指数显示,4月前三周,禽类、蛋类、蔬菜及水产品类等主要农产品价格环比均持续下跌。从国家统计局公布的50个城市主要食品平均价格旬度变动情况来看,4月上中旬,主要食品价格中环比下跌的品种多于上涨的品种。

“今年一季度CPI同比涨幅只有1.4%,不但明显低于去年全年的2%,也低于市场预期。从主要影响因素来看,虽然非食品价格的同比涨幅高于近年的平均水平,但由于食品价格出现季节性回落,拉低了CPI的同比数据。”交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,预计4月食品价格环比将比上月再度明显回落2.5个百分点左右。考虑到非食品价格方面,成品油价格上调且涨幅较大,或将拉高交通类价格,预计4月非食品价格同比涨幅与上月相比小幅回升至2.4%。据此初步判断,4月CPI同比涨幅可能在1%至1.2%左右,取中值为1.1%,涨幅比上月略有回升。

海通证券、中信证券等机构报告也预测,4月CPI同比涨幅为1.1%。市场人士普遍认为,食品价格尤其是鲜菜价格较去年同期大幅回落,是一季度物价指数走低的关键,并将进一步影响CPI未来的走势。

值得一提的是,3月PPI高位回调,同比上涨7.6%,涨幅比上个月收窄0.2个百分点,这是该指数涨幅连续五个月扩大后的首次回落。此前由于PPI连续走高而CPI保持低位,两个数据间的差距不断拉大,这种“剪刀差”有望在4月收窄。

连平表示,4月已公布的周频生产资料价格普遍下降。对流通领域主要生产资料价格初步测算,九大类生产资料中,黑色金属环比降幅最大达到-7.5%,有色金属、化工产品、农业生产资料、林产品价格都明显下降。预计4月PPI环比涨幅由正转负,幅度在-0.5%到0%之间,由于去年4月PPI环比上涨0.7%,基数的上升将带来今年同期同比涨幅显著收窄。今年4月PPI翘尾因素为5.1%,比上个月下降0.75个百分点。综合判断,4月PPI同比涨幅在6.3%到6.9%之间,取中值为6.6%,比上个月显著回落。连平认为,随着企业补库存周期逐渐走弱,叠加翘尾因素下降的影响,未来PPI涨势可能继续放缓。

海通证券宏观首席分析师姜超则认为,4月PPI同比涨幅有可能跌至6.1%。他表示,4月PMI指数大幅下滑,主要价格指数走低,钢价、铜价、煤价等相继出现明显下跌,均意味着通胀预期明显走弱。

(责编:孙博洋、乔雪峰)

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