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“确定”的雄安,需要培养点儿“不确定”

2017-04-27 11:05:49   

26日下午,河北雄安新区举行了自成立以来的首场新闻发布会,计划将30平方公里启动区的控制性详规和城市设计,面向全球招标,开展设计竞赛和方案征集。

雄安新区最终会以什么形象示人,我们目前还无法得知,但是雄安新区怎样才能有好的发展?

“应该充分培养其不确定性。”中国人民大学公共管理学院公共财政与公共政策研究所教授毛寿龙认为。

  雄安为何要“不确定”?

穷国喜欢控制黄金、土地和劳动力,富国喜欢让黄金、劳动力、土地和资源释放出来,发挥其不确定性,使其产生利润,其结果是前者的财富往往是后者的一个零头。

在这个意义上,大家都普遍看好的雄安新区,是土地和确定的机会的集中,在这里国家秩序全面渗透,不确定性被国家秩序严格管制,其结果是雄安新区只有租金,没有不确定的利润。

在这个意义上,雄安新区因为有大量的租金,显然也会很好地发展,但和珠三角、长三角,乃至深圳特区相比,后者充满的不确定性要比前者多得多。因此,如果雄安新区要有很好的发展,还是需要像南方的经济区那样,要充分培育其不确定性,而要降低国家秩序的确定性。

在政府秩序维度里,不确定性通过强制控制而得以消除。政府是国家控制确定性的实施者。政府还通过强制,控制了很多东西。比如牌照,生产、销售和购买的机会,户籍等。都是确定性的。在这里,也只有租,没有利润。东北的发展,依靠租,而不是依靠利润。而东南沿海的发展,依靠不确定的利润,而没有政府政策的租。山西成也煤炭,败也煤炭,存在“煤炭诅咒”,是因为这里只有租,而没有不确定的利润。

  要不确定,不要伤害

在原始社会秩序里,没有“不确定性”,人生下来就一大堆“确定”。

在古代,一个女子,生在深闺不出门,只能找表哥谈恋爱,皇亲国戚只能先被选择要不要当宫女。而现在,一个女孩子走向大城市、走向职场、出国留学、走向国际……就有了无数的获得爱情的机会。

“离家出走”,离开老家,去遥远的地方打拼,也可能是有新的利润,因为存在大量的不确定性。所以北京人去纽约,上海人去东京,农村人到大城市,都或多或少挣了好多利润。

一个班的同学,有的同学很快致富,有的同学依然如故,很快形成贫富差距,表面是谁有出息,谁没有出息,其背后是不确定的利润的多少。

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