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一季度农产品价格全面走弱 禽肉价格大幅度下降

2017-04-25 09:57:08   经济参考报

农业部24日通报重点农产品市场运行情况。今年一季度,农产品市场运行呈现蔬菜、猪肉价格逐月下跌,禽肉价格较大幅度下降等特点。

对于蔬菜价格下跌的主要原因,农业部市场与经济信息司司长唐珂表示,除了节日效应过后需求减少外,还与农户受上年同期高价刺激,扩大种植面积有直接关系,再加上今年北方天气回暖快,大棚蔬菜长势好,短期内大量集中上市,导致供应量偏多,压低了菜价,蔬菜价格提前进入季节性下跌区间。未来天气状况总体有利于蔬菜生长,预计两到三个月内蔬菜供应将持续增加,蔬菜价格将继续呈季节性回落态势。

对于猪肉价格的走势,唐珂说,预计上半年猪价将呈高位震荡、小幅下跌态势,5月份前后可能企稳,生猪养殖效益依然向好,猪粮比有望保持较高水平。一般春节过后猪肉消费呈现季节性回落,直到5月份以后进入旅游旺季,再加上中秋、国庆等节日效应拉动,猪肉价格或将反弹。值得注意的是,由于国内猪肉价格总体偏高,国内外价差动力较强,预计后期猪肉进口还有空间,将对国产猪肉价格产生一定打压。

一季度农业市场价格延续了去年走弱的趋势。国家统计局农村社会经济调查司统计师汪传敬表示,近年来,虽然适度规模化经营快速发展,但小规模生产仍是我国农业生产经营方式的主体,种粮收益受到经营规模的严重制约,农民家庭经营性收入占家庭可支配收入的比重下降。2016年,粮食价格下跌,亩均收益下降,对农民家庭经营性收入产生了较为不利的影响,同时,粮食种植收益下降也会影响种粮积极性,给国家粮食安全带来隐患。因此,需要完善农业政策体系,加快推进粮食目标价格改革,充分发挥市场机制在价格形成中的作用。

也有专家看好今年的食品价格走势。中国社科院农村发展研究所研究员李国祥表示,近年来,居民食品消费结构不断升级,居民更加注重食用优质高档类食物,结构性变化会引起食品消费单位价格的上升。同时,国内部分畜产品供求关系偏紧的状况仍将持续,这也可能引起居民食品消费价格的上升。综合来看,2017年居民食品消费价格或继续维持温和上涨态势,预计农产品生产者价格同比上涨2%,食品消费价格同比上涨4%。中国食用农产品供求关系总体上偏松,不支持居民食品消费价格明显上涨。

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