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恒生前海基金:深度挖掘港股投资新机遇
2017-09-21 11:07:27 中国经济网
基本面改善成为港股上涨最强支撑点。“中国宏观经济整体向好,企业盈利改善明显,为港股提供了基本面支撑。”石琳表示,目前香港市场上,内地企业的数量占比约50%,市值占比约60%, 交易额占比约70%,内地经济环境的冷暖在很大程度上影响着香港上市公司的表现。“年初至今,宏观经济数据一直超预期表现,市场上对于2017年国内GDP的增速预期,在2016年最低时期仅为6.2%,修复到目前的6.7%,推动了恒生指数进一步上行。”石琳表示。
除了企业基本面良好,南下资金的持续涌入,也是助推港股今年以来走势强劲的一大因素。数据显示,国内南下资金占港交所交易额的比例已经从2006至2007年度的8%上升至约20%的水平。目前港股通持股市值总额6900亿港币,占港股通标的总市值的2.5%。“港股通目前交易量占香港主板股票交易量约11%~12%,加上原有的内地机构投资者和个人投资者,内地资金在香港市场的参与度超过了20%。” 石琳表示,南下资金的持续流入,推动港股进一步价值重估。
此外,工业企业持续降杠杆,利润增长提速,银行资产整体质量改善,在很大程度上消除了海外机构对中国经济硬着陆的担忧,从而也带动了海外资金不断流入港股市场。石琳认为,中美利差反转,宏观经济企稳,以及年初至今人民币对美元温和升值,伴随着国际机构对中国资产重拾信心,也带动了港股市场的提振。
港股估值的提升,是否意味着目前港股价格已经比较“贵”了?对此,石琳认为港股估值优势仍较明显。数据显示,年初至今,尽管港股整体表现优异,由于两地上市的股票中A、H股的不同走势,以及汇率变动的影响,港股估值折让未减反增。截至9月19日收盘,恒生AH溢价指数超过129%。此外,从长期投资价值看来,2016年恒生指数股息率为3.7%,明显高于沪深300的2.1%。
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