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焦炭有望构筑阶段性头部

2017-09-13 10:07:40   中国经济网

现货市场供应偏紧 尝试做空焦炭远月合约

8月底,焦炭价格大幅拉高之后,连续调整五天。9月5日,焦炭触底反弹,再次冲高,测试前期高点。不过,由于目前焦炭期货升水过大,需求将比预期要差,技术面上升形态已经遭到破坏。未来一段时间,焦炭的价格有望继续调整,可逢高做空。

焦炭期货大幅升水 上涨压力巨大

目前焦炭期货1801合约价格升水二级冶金焦现货价格超过期货价格的20%。如此巨大的基差,期货继续上涨难度极大。虽然现货也出现多轮涨价,但即使现货继续涨价,相当长一段时间,焦炭现货价格(不含税价)也很难达到当前期货的价格。

目前主力合约焦炭期货价格升水现货(不含税)价格接近20%,处于历史纪录高位。一般当期货升水达到20%左右,行情进入调整的概率就极大了。因此,未来一段时间,也许焦炭期货价格还有短暂上冲的可能,但整体调整压力比较大,极有可能出现一轮期货向现货回归的行情。

图为焦炭期货升贴水变化

环保限产对钢厂影响大于焦化厂

错峰取暖季环保限产对钢厂影响大于焦化,原料端或将承压,钢材价格将得到支撑。今年中央加大环保督察力度,对整个上下游产业链都产生影响。不过,由于前期焦化的开工率本来就不高,高炉开工率达到历史高位附近。环保督察主要影响的是下游的钢厂,对焦化厂的影响相对偏低。这给当期的焦炭价格造成一定的压力。

从政策执行的角度来看,环保督察对钢厂影响更大。例如,近日,唐山市政府召开全市大气污染防治工作调度会。相关文件显示(初步原则性方案),唐山采暖季钢铁产能限产50%,以高炉生产能力计算,采用企业实际用电量核实。对排放不达标的责令停产,全市焦化企业限产达30%左右。显然,北方地区大气污染防治工作对钢厂的影响更大。

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