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美韩自贸协定遭嫌弃,特朗普打啥牌

2017-09-06 08:22:22   中国青年网

■本报记者 安峥

据《华盛顿邮报》报道,多名知情人士表示,美国总统特朗普已命令顾问着手准备美国退出《美韩自贸协定》事宜。白宫称,美国欲撤出该协定的通知最早或于当地时间周二发布。有评论称,在眼下朝鲜半岛紧张局势加剧、特朗普与韩国总统文在寅对朝政策分歧公开化的背景下,此举将在美韩同盟间划下新裂痕。

特朗普酝酿半年

在亚太地区,韩国可以说是美国的“高级伙伴”,与首尔结盟一直是美国的亚太战略关键支柱。2007年6月,随着《美韩自贸协定》的签署,两国关系从安保同盟扩展到了全面同盟。如今,韩国是美国第六大贸易伙伴国,而美国是继中国之后的韩国第二大贸易伙伴国。

美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)评论称,在东北亚局势紧张加剧之际,在特朗普发推文批评文在寅对朝“软弱”后,退出《美韩自贸协定》的打算体现了美韩之间矛盾加深。

不过,中国现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所研究员陈凤英指出,这一决定酝酿已久,它是特朗普根据今年3月发布的《2017年总统经贸政策议程》 而推出的一揽子政策之一。当时,特朗普要求贸易代表对美国所有贸易协定进行为期3个月的重新评估,以采取一切措施保卫国内市场。评估报告6月出台,7月形成结论,眼下提出对策在时间上顺理成章。

上海对外经贸大学朝鲜半岛研究中心主任詹德斌认为,特朗普的命令有三重背景。首先,美国对《美韩自贸协定》早有不满。奥巴马时期,美国一直批评韩国没有严格履行协定,享受了好处却对美国造成不利; 奥巴马每次访韩都会向其提出“认真履约”的要求。如今,打着“美国优先”口号上台的特朗普要求退出或修订协定,也是情理之中的事。再加上眼下韩国在安保方面对美依赖加剧,美国可能认为,现在提出重谈,韩国反抗的余地将大大弱化。

重谈可能性更大

美媒称,据知情人士介绍,最终决定尚未做出,特朗普可能保留这份协议,以考虑是否存在进行修订的可能性。也就是说,无论退出、修订还是重谈,特朗普都给自己预留了充足的回旋空间。

“事实上,特朗普采取的是‘胡萝卜加大棒’方式,”陈凤英说,“说‘取消’其实是一种威慑,取消的可能性存在,但更大的可能是一边压一边谈,迫使韩国接受条件。美国想拿到更大好处,与完全退出和修订相比,重谈可能性更大。”詹徳斌指出,正如特朗普多年前在《交易的艺术》一书中所写,话说得“狠”,尽最大可能施压,其实也是一种谈判策略。

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