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专家前瞻金砖合作:深化伙伴关系 促进共同发展

2017-08-31 17:20:54   中国青年网

人民网北京8月31日电 (付长超)金砖国家如何打造下一个“黄金十年”?新时期,金砖国家合作又将面临哪些“成长的烦恼”?8月30日,在中国新闻社举办的“国是论坛——金砖国家峰会前瞻”论坛上,与会者围绕这些话题展开讨论。

过去10年,金砖国家在经济、贸易、投资、技术等方面取得了巨大进步,为世界经济增长注入了强劲动力。经过10年发展,金砖国家伙伴关系的理念已深入人心,成为全体成员国努力的方向。

在中国现代国际关系研究院研究员陈凤英看来,厦门会晤将开启金砖国家另一个“辉煌十年”,金砖国家将引领全球治理。“国际力量格局正从过去的量变走向质变,在技术、金融、人才方面的积累将助力金砖国家实现弯道超车。”

有机遇也有新挑战。陈凤英认为,金砖国家的可持续增长是主要挑战,“世界在同步增长的同时,有些国家的产业已经结构化了。所以可持续增长可能成为未来10年中的重要问题,能不能保住过去的增长是关键。”陈凤英表示,金砖国家合作必须强调互信和伙伴关系,秉承共商、共建、共享原则,合力解决全球治理问题,才能促进共同发展。

中国贸促会研究院国际贸易研究部主任赵萍认为,基础设施互联互通是金砖国家务实合作的突破口。“未来如果能够在基础设施领域有更多投资与合作,对于像俄罗斯、巴西、南非经济增长面临较大挑战的国家来说,能够通过基础设施的合作实现新的增长点。” 赵萍表示,在解决基础设施建设资金和经验不足方面,各国要深化伙伴关系,要更多从国际化角度来看技术标准、建设资金使用等,更多地用“共商、共建、共享”的思路,大力吸引外资,努力扩大开放。

对外经济贸易大学副校长林桂军表示,此前10年,金砖国家贸易彼此之间的依存度逐步增强,这当中出口依存度的增加是主要动力。以往,中国对其他金砖国家的出口大幅增长,未来10年,中国可将重心放在扩大对金砖国家的进口上,分阶段推动双边自由贸易协定的签订。

“很多人看衰金砖,这是对金砖合作未来前途的低估。”中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文认为,金砖五国过去10年的发展速度和所形成的影响力,以及各自经济、人口的规模体量,都将成为未来金砖合作行稳致远的重要保障。

在金砖五国之中,除了中国,未来10年间,专家认为印度和巴西是最大的“黑马”。商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明认为,印度人口相对年轻化,且人口基数为其带来劳动力优势,有助于全球产业向印度转移。在北京师范大学金砖国家合作中心主任王磊看来,相比之下,巴西最具潜力。“首先,巴西具有物质资源优势,各类天然矿产丰富,其次,巴西周边政治环境安定,无军事对抗,有利于其发展。”

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