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张藴岭:中日关系有两个基本稳定器

2017-08-27 10:50:47   中国青年网

中国社会科学院国际研究学部主任张蕴岭致辞 贾文婷摄

人民网北京8月27日电(常红、陆晓鸥)由中国社会科学院主办、中国社会科学院日本研究所承办的“纪念中日邦交正常化45周年”国际学术研讨会于27日在京举行。中国社会科学院国际研究学部主任张藴岭出席研讨会并致辞。

张藴岭表示,中日恢复邦交实现两国关系正常化已经走过45个年头,一步步走来成效很大,但是路也不是十分顺畅。

张藴岭认为,应从历史发展进程及大局的视角来看待中日关系。中日关系有经济合作及共同的和平发展诉求两个基本稳定器。

第一、从历史发展进程的视角看中日关系。

中日关系正经历大的历史性转折。近代,中日综合实力发生了日本超越中国的大转折,无论对中日关系还是对地区格局都产生了重大影响。如今,中国综合实力超越日本,且差距进一步拉大,也必然对中日关系和地区格局产生重大的影响。中日关系正处在这种力量转换下的磨合期。21世纪,上次转折的悲剧不能也不应该重演。中国宣誓始终不渝地走和平发展的道路。但是日本一些当政者、战略家对此还存有疑虑,特别是近些年来防范中国似乎成为既定政策。如何构建新形势、新格局下的新型中日关系非常重要,需要双方作出很大努力,也需要双方的智慧。

第二、从大局的视角看中日关系。

中日关系不是单纯的双边关系,受多种因素影响。冷战结束以后,东北亚地区的政治与安全格局没有发生根本性的转变,美国扩大在这个地区的存在,军事同盟加强。美朝对抗加剧,朝鲜半岛危机加深。而美国把崛起的中国作为主要的战略竞争对手。在此情况下,中日之间能够找到战略与安全合作的点比较少,日本更加依附与美国的同盟,在中美战略竞争中站在美国的一边,在中国有纠葛的地方火上浇油,给人感觉中日总是相背而行。当前,东北亚又一次处在是战还是和的十字路口,中日应合力推进东北亚地区新和平秩序的构建,这对两国好,也对地区好。

第三、中日关系有两个基本稳定器。

一是中日的经济关系。尽管市场份额在下降,特别是日本在中国的贸易与投资份额大幅度下降,但是重要性和利益基础存在,是结构性的调整,不是战略性的转变。

二是共同的和平诉求。不仅中日不能再战,而且也要阻止在家门口生战,因为战争给人民的伤害太深,现代战争的危害性更难以想象。不过中日关系很脆弱,受到各种因素的影响,这两个稳定器都需要加固,需要寻求新形势下的经济关系的加固点,需要在构建长久和平上增进共识,从战略和功能上避免发生战争或者卷入战争。

张藴岭表示,希望此次研讨会能够提出更多有影响的对策建议,推动两国关系迈向新的45年。最重要的是多层面、多方式,加强两国之间的人文交流,教育、文化、社会,从务实做起。比如,过去着重于谈经济的开放、便利化,今后还可以做提升人文开放,签署便利化的协议等。中日关系还有很多事情可以务实地去做,从基础做起,走向正常的中日关系是必须有这种思想准备,去掉幻想,准备更好的结果。

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