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亚洲经济增长仍然充满活力

2017-08-24 05:27:08   中国青年网

核心阅读

今年是亚洲金融危机爆发20年。过去20年里,亚洲发展中经济体年均增长6.8%,增长幅度高于其他地区。多家机构分析认为,现在亚洲地区经济增长更多依赖强劲的国内需求,抵御外来风险的能力提高。亚洲开发银行(亚行)行长中尾武彦也表示“亚洲经济前景看好”。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)和亚行近期纷纷发表报告,调高了对今明两年亚洲地区的经济增长预期。亚行在总部马尼拉发布的《2017年亚洲发展展望》补充报告中指出,亚太地区2017年和2018年经济增长可望达到5.9%和5.8%。IMF在7月发布的《世界经济展望报告》更新内容中,也上调了中国和东盟五国经济增长预期,并将亚洲新兴和发展中经济体今明两年经济增长预期均上调一个百分点至6.5%。

亚洲地区的经济体有能力应对所面临的潜在冲击

亚行的调整是基于亚洲发展中经济体今年一季度出口增长超过预期做出的。分析指出,对2018年增长预期的上调幅度较小,反映出亚行对出口增长持续推动经济的谨慎态度。

亚行首席经济学家泽田康幸表示,“今年亚洲发展中经济体开局良好,出口改善将推动2017年下半年的增长前景。尽管全球经济复苏力度仍存在诸多不确定因素,但我们认为,该地区的经济体完全有能力应对所面临的潜在冲击。”

亚行将东亚地区今明两年的增长预期分别调高至6.0%和5.7%。亚行认为,日本仍在依靠出口增长来继续保持经济发展。IMF也上调了对日本的增长预测,认为私人消费、投资和出口支持了日本第一季度的增长。

亚行报告显示,南亚将是亚太地区经济增长最快的次区域。其2017年和2018年有望实现最初预测的7.0%和7.2%的增长。同时,得益于强劲的国内消费,印度能够实现之前预测的今明两年7.4%和7.6%的增长。IMF也预计印度的经济增长今明两年将进一步加快。

亚行估计,东南亚地区今明两年的预期增长率分别保持在4.8%和5.0%。报告预计,该次区域经济增长较快的国家包括马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡。东南亚经济增长主要依靠强劲的国内需求,特别是私人消费和投资拉动。IMF报告提到,随着全球贸易回升和国内需求加强,东盟五国(泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾)的经济增长预计将保持在5%左右的强劲水平。由于东盟五国今年第一季度的增长表现普遍较强,2017年增长预测相对于4月的报告略有上调。

中国经济持续强劲增长为全球需求提供重要支持

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