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气象专家解析华北等地强降雨

2017-08-22 17:36:33   

中国日报8月22日电 中央气象台预报显示,21日至23日,我国西北地区东部、华北、东北中北部、内蒙古东部等地先后将出现中到大雨,其中陕西北部、山西中北部、四川盆地西部等地的部分地区有暴雨,局地有大暴雨。上述部分地区并伴有短时强降水,局地有雷暴大风等强对流天气。

中央气象台首席预报员马学款介绍说,这次降雨成因是由于西太平洋副热带高压西伸加强,副高外围的暖湿气流和中纬度冷空气的共同作用。在对流层的底层有两支暖湿气流,一支是在副高外围形成的西南环湿气流,一支是低空东南风气流,向西北东部和华北一带输送水汽。同时青藏高原以及中纬度西风带,有高空短波槽活动,引起低空系统如低涡、切变线及西南急流的发展,导致辐合抬升作用加强。有了充沛的水汽和强辐合抬升就会产生比较强的降水,其中对流天气以短时强降雨为主,局地伴有雷暴大风。

具体来说,主要降雨区出现在陕北、冀北、京津地区到吉林黑龙江一带。降雨量普遍在30-80毫米之间,陕西北部和山西中部局地过程量将达到100-130毫米左右。

北京地区22至23日有一次明显降雨过程,主要降雨出现在22日夜间到23日上午,大部地区累积降雨量为中到大雨,局地达暴雨。最强降水时段出现在22日夜间。预计,降雨量在20-40毫米,局地降雨量在50-80毫米,最大小时雨强20-40毫米,强对流天气以短时强降雨为主,局地有雷暴大风。近期降雨频繁,外出时应及时关注气象部门临近预报,应尽量减少到山区游玩,注意出行安全,谨防地质灾害。

针对有关北京近期降雨是否偏多的疑问,马学款说,每年7月中下旬到8月份是华北东北雨季,在此期间出现较强降雨天气过程属于正常。但每个年份降雨情况不同,有偏多也有偏少的情况,目前来看今年华北降水偏多不明显。

从近10天的降水距平图来看,与历史同期相比,内蒙古东部、东北地区西部降水较往年偏多1倍左右,华北东部偏多50%,北方其余大部地区降水偏少。近20天的降水距平图来看,华北东部、东北地区西部、内蒙古东部降水偏多,华北中西部大部地区基本持平或偏少。近30天以来,北方地区降水偏多和偏少的范围接近,总体接近常年。

对北京地区而言,过去30天降水偏少20-30%;过去20天北京降水中西部持平,东部偏多;仅近10天北京大部分地区降水偏多50%左右。所以总体来看,进入雨季以来,华北和北京降水量情况处于接近常年或略偏少的状态。

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