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银行股脉冲式上演逆袭行情 工商银行股价创下9年新高

2017-08-16 10:44:58   中国经济网

昨天银行板块强势上扬,中国银行、建设银行涨逾3%。本报全媒体记者发现,自7月份以来,银行股不时走出脉冲式上涨行情,工商银行股价甚至创下9年新高。

从8月18日起,A股市场将迎来上市银行半年报披露高峰,而资产质量和业绩的改善有望大大提高市场对银行股的估值看法。该板块的机构配置比例仍是在标准行业中最低,这将在很大程度上给银行股带来炒作契机。

银行资产质量和业绩有所改善

除了A股中的银行股昨天出现逆袭走势之外,在港上市的内地银行股昨天早盘也集体上扬。

近期银行股走势引起投资者关注。7月26日,工商银行股价一度触及5.66元/股,再创2008年1月以来9年的新高,尾盘报5.60元/股,当日上涨2.19%。该股价已经越过了过去10年的历史大顶,上证指数6124点以来的套牢盘已全部解套。

此外,招商银行股价25日盘中创历史新高后,26日尾盘收报25.46元/股,年初以来涨幅超45%。南京银行、浦发银行、宁波银行、民生银行等股价也创下阶段新高。

大部分市场人士认为,银行股今年的上涨与银行资产质量和业绩的改善有一定关系。民生证券预计,上半年16家上市银行净利润增速为4.0%,较一季度增速提升。大行上半年预测增速为3.5%,与一季度相比增速提升更为明显。除此以外其他子板块净利润预计增速平稳,股份行与城商行增速分别为4.6%、9.9%。

机构配置在标准行业中最低

根据中泰证券的统计,基金从2016年三季就开始银行股持续加仓银行股,目前持仓比例4.27%;其中今年二季度加仓较多,在行业中排位第5,持仓增加0.77%,仅次于非银、家用电器、食品饮料、电子。但相对标准行业配置比例仍是在所有行业中最低。从这个角度来看,机构配置银行股的空间比较大。

招商银行金融行业首席分析师马鲲鹏在其最新分析报告中提出,银行板块无外部利空因素,基本面好转的趋势坚定且明确。即将到来的中报、三季报将有力印证板块自身不断向好的基本面,三季度是布局银行板块的绝佳时间窗口。广发证券也称,降准预期有望对银行板块形成催化,维持买入评级。

目前,银行股中三条主线被机构看好:估值低、高股息率、经营稳健的大中型银行,如农业银行、招商银行和宁波银行;净息差有望改善的,如兴业银行;低估值银行,如华夏银行、北京银行。

不过值得警醒的是,随着一年前江苏银行成功上市后,A股IPO大门正式重新对银行开放,至今年年初,已有9家银行陆续实现A股挂牌。随着银行IPO重启满周年,这些次新银行股首次公开发行的部分限售股也将陆续解禁。有市场人士担心,一旦解禁期来临,大股东和机构投资者会争相卖出,将筹码在高位倒手给接盘的中小投资者。

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