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博时基金魏凤春:周期板块表现分化或将扩大

2017-08-15 12:44:07   中国经济网

国际股市方面,上周权益市场普遍下跌,欧美日股市因朝鲜局势明显下跌,香港股市调整幅度较大。国内股市弱势运行,周期行业冲高回落,但创业板指逆势上涨。贵金属避险上涨。海外经济方面,全球避险情绪显著上行,VIX指数累计涨近50%。

国内经济数据显示出口在高位小幅下行,尽管如此,今年对外贸易的改善幅度仍然较大,后续将进一步考察贸易是否有结构性变化。PPI同比增长5.5%,8月PMI购进价格指数表现仍然较佳。2Q17货币政策执行报告未暗示短期利率将升或将降,但明确汇率变化会更多照顾到中美之间基本面的相对变化,也确认监管协调工作在2Q17做的更好。

A股方面,上周周期板块冲高回落,A股迎来调整。之前认为博弈周期的风险上升,如果释放充分之后,周期也有卷土重来的可能,毕竟周期基本面无明显恶化,只是参与周期的第二波可能要更加谨慎,因为周期的分化将会更大,考虑到市场前期积累了较多的浮盈(尤其是周期板块),短期调整或将持续。

港股上周跟随A股金融板块与国际股市而大幅调整,但汇率、中国经济等基本面因素依然强劲,港股短期调整与美股关系或更加密切。

考虑中国经济三季度超预期表现以及金融去杠杆尚在途中,国内债市短期或难有大的反弹,但预计下半年流动性有望维持较二季度更佳的状态,债券中期的配置收益有望上升,高等级中短久期信用债相对占优。

原油市场随着美国库存下降、产量增速放缓的利好助推上行,但OPEC内部分歧加大、产量回升和减产执行率下降使得短期内原油供给过剩的担忧仍在,限制油价涨幅。短期来看,预计油价仍以震荡为主。

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