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短期压力仍不容小觑 看点依旧在创业板

2017-08-14 16:12:39   中国经济网

今日两市各大指数开盘涨跌不一,深市三大股指表现强势直接小幅高开,随后便一路震荡上行,带领沪指低开后也保持上行的节凑,上证50、沪深300等指数也有企稳的态势。经过了上周的下杀,今日指数有企稳反弹的走势,创业板盘中大涨2个多百分点,区域链、人工智能等题材板块个股大涨,雄安新区概念持续活跃,上周走弱的钢铁板块今日盘中走强,带动市场人气,但是我们仍需要注意,虽然今日盘面各个板块表现较为活跃,但是其持续性有待考验,并且经过了上周的下杀,指数向上反弹仍需较大量能的参与,然而上午的成交量并没有有效的放大,关注后续量能的变化,午后指数或将维持震荡的格局,板块方面,区块链、环保工程涨幅居前,银行、贵金属跌幅靠后。

随着上周指数的下杀,今日指数迎来了小幅反弹,但是本周会像前期那样触底反弹吗?答案或许不太确定。从资金面上看,本周将有8875亿元逆回购MLF到期,今日有2100亿元逆回购到期,但是央行仍然没有向市场投放资金;另一方面,沪股通连续3日保持净流出的状态,外资对于当前的走势也变得越来越谨慎,并且从卖出情况来看,白酒和金融板块成为他们抛售的重点,所以不利于指数的进一步上行,最后,就是板块持续性方面,没有带动性的板块,不能给指数的大幅上行提供动力,所以短期指数或将继续维持震荡的格局,等待新的、热点性的板块的出现。

技术上看,经过上周的下杀,指数触及下方上升趋势线,受支撑后今日向上反弹运行,并且从沪指30分钟级别来看,指数下方受到5日和10日均线的支撑,下方KDJ发散向上,运行趋势良好,但是我们仍需要注意,目前量能在不断的减少,短期不利于指数的进一步上冲,关注量能的变化。创业板来看,今日盘中大涨2个多百分点,并且突破上方一众均线的压力,短期运行趋势良好,关注60日均线的支撑和其板块的持续性。

源达收评:今日两市再次呈现深强沪弱的格局,创业板盘中大涨2个多百分点,而沪指则维持震荡上行的格局,虽有分化,但各大指数运行趋势良好,板块也是遍地开花,个股涨多跌少,但是我们仍需要注意,随着本周资金面的压力和外资态度的谨慎,加之急跌后的上方套牢盘的压力,短期指数上行的阻力也是比较大,关注3200点的支撑,操作上,关注有业绩支撑的、仍处于低位有政策预期的个股,但一定要控制仓位。

巨丰投顾认为沪指自3300点调整以来,涨价题材早已构筑阶段性头部,创业板有补涨的态势,市场总体向上的力量并未遭到破坏。8月10日开始大盘连跌两天,使得市场再次回归到之前的节奏上来,全面走牛依旧只是一厢情愿。市场的看点依旧在创业板上。随着中报行情步入尾声,市场将对“成长性”进行区分。操作上,建议投资者重点关注中报超预期的中小市值个股,对于强周期板块的强势回调,不建议轻易介入。

上周随着一系列外围消息的影响,全球市场纷纷出现回落,A股市场的避险情绪升温,出现了较大幅度的回调。当前市场中,沪市蓝筹已经连续多轮上涨,创业板蓝筹正在经历价值重新挖掘的过程,市场低估值品种已经逐步回归合理水平。

当前市场中,既存在贵州茅台、五粮液等强者恒强的局面,又存在创业板低估值蓝筹受大资金青睐,国家队与私募纷纷布局的情况,多重效应叠加下,A股迎来强势反弹。最令人欣喜的是创业板的表现,让投资者重新恢复对创业板的信心,有望形成真正的主创联动和轮动,带动大盘新一轮的上涨。

从深港通来看,资金北上明显,沪港通资金目前仍在南下,说明外资在逐渐从A股和H股中的国企蓝筹中抽出来,流入至当前估值较低中小创之中,一方面是避险,另一方面也是与A股国家队主力形成抱团。不过抱团取暖需谨防过热,投资者要密切关注创业板反弹节奏,分清合理反弹与反弹泡沫,挖掘真正的价值所在。

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