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CAFI 多数板块上涨
2017-08-14 10:13:58 中国经济网
上周,中国期货市场监控中心农产品期货指数(CAFI)微涨0.51%,至920.79点。其中,油脂指数上涨1.36%,至582.59点;粮食指数上涨2.40%,至1341.43点;软商品指数微涨0.72%,至889.23点;饲料指数微跌0.58%,至1619.74点;油脂油料指数微涨0.05%,至938.94点;谷物指数上涨2.53%,至1081.73点。
CAFI成分品种大多上涨,波动率较低。三大油脂中,棕榈油微涨0.49%,豆油上涨1.67%,菜油大涨3.56%。谷物中,玉米上涨2.97%,强麦微涨0.91%。软商品中,棉花上涨1.16%,白糖微涨0.56%,淀粉上涨2.92%,鲜鸡蛋暴涨7.48%。粕类中,豆粕下跌1.69%,菜粕下跌1.30%。与此同时,豆一大涨3.52%。
上周末,各地鸡蛋价格因走货加快而大幅上涨,超过3.9元/斤,多地价格突破4元/斤,创年内新高。鸡蛋价格上涨,令老鸡淘汰速度大幅放缓,淘汰鸡价格随之坚挺。目前,450天日龄以上的老鸡占比不到10%。其中,500天日龄以上的老鸡占比不到2%。前期,毛鸡出栏量持续偏低,屠宰场收购困难,开工受到影响,其不得不提高收购价格。不过,鸡肉产品销售未见好转,近日走货速度放缓,屠宰场出现亏损,开始联合压价,毛鸡价格稍有回落。后期的节前补货有望提振价格。
目前,流通环节库存不多,双节备货和学校开学时点临近,需求端有回暖预期,养殖户看涨信心不减,惜售造成短期货源偏紧,预计本周鸡蛋价格会保持上涨节奏,产区价格可能突破4.3元/斤。中期来看,存栏量进一步缩紧的预期令远月合约受益。
鸡蛋近月合约已经触及年内高点,但由于涨势迅猛,盘面存在技术性调整压力,短期内鸡蛋价格涨势将放缓。
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