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美海军再次闯礁,精明打算不一定能获得想要结果

2017-08-11 17:16:52   国际在线

2017年8月10日,美军“麦凯恩”号导弹驱逐舰未经中国政府允许,擅自进入中国南沙群岛有关岛礁邻近海域,进行所谓“航行自由行动”。中国军队随即派出军舰依法对美舰实施查证识别,并予以警告驱离。中国国防部和外交部在当天对美国这一行径进行回应,称美军舰再次擅闯南海可谓“司马昭之心,路人皆知”,中方表示坚决反对。

这是特朗普总统上台以来,美军第三次闯入中国南海岛礁12海里,开展所谓的“南海航行自由”行动。今年7月2日,美国海军“斯坦塞姆”号导弹驱逐舰闯入中国西沙群岛中建岛12海里;5月25日,美国海军“杜威”号导弹驱逐舰闯入中国南沙群岛美济岛12海里。美方坚持称这些岛礁的“主权问题存在争议”,声称此举是“华盛顿方面”的直接授意,目的是促使中国在朝核问题上与美国达成妥协。那么此次美海军再次闯礁又是为何呢?笔者认为美方有三大意图。

首先是阻止南海局势继续朝着向和平稳定的方向发展。近年来,美国为了遏制中国的崛起,屡屡在南海方向搅局制造事端,扰乱中国周边和平稳定的安全环境。去年的南海仲裁案就是其“杰作”之一。然而中国凭借高超的外交技巧和政治智慧化解了美国的攻势——与菲律宾改善关系使南海局势开始朝着和平稳定的方向发展,并使美国包围中国的岛链变得不那么牢固。

8月6日,中国与东盟国家签署顺利通过《南海行为准则》框架文件使南海和平与稳定有了保障。然而这却不符合美国遏制中国的利益——一个和平稳定的南海无疑有利于中国发展海权。因此美国一方面宣布2018年将派航空母舰访问越南,另一方面自己亲自上阵——派遣军舰闯礁,此举使地区局势再度紧张。

其次是增加与中国打交道时的筹码。众所周知,现任美国总统特朗普曾是一位长袖善舞的成功商人。这位与众不同的总统特别善于做交易,而做交易就不能没有筹码。在特朗普看来,美国有许多问题需要和中国这个最大的贸易伙伴谈判,比如汇率问题、市场准入问题等等。当地时间8月6日,正在菲律宾首都马尼拉出席东亚合作系列外长会的中国外长王毅与美国国务卿蒂勒森举行双边会晤。会后,王毅在回答记者提问时表示,双方正在为特朗普总统访华积极做准备。在善于讨价还价的特朗普看来,在南海实施所谓的“自由航行”行动可以使其在与中国的谈判中掌握更多筹码,占据更有利的地位。实际上在海湖庄园会议之前他也曾在台湾问题上做过文章,这次可以看作是他的故伎重演。

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