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东北强降雨也是台风带来的吗

2017-08-10 05:33:22   中国青年网

7月29日,中国气象局台风与海洋气象预报中心的专家们在研判“双台风”(“纳沙”和“海棠”)的相互作用。崔国辉摄/光明图片

8月2日,华北、东北等地出现强降雨天气。其中,辽宁全省多地出现大暴雨,最大降雨出现在朝阳市工业园区,为210毫米;河北承德、唐山、沧州局地降雨量达到200毫米-270毫米。这让当地很多人感到意外,明明气象部门早前已经告知,今年第10号台风“海棠”早在7月31日就已经减弱为热带低压,为什么还说这些千里之外的地方强降水是受台风影响?

实际上,这次千里之外的华北和东北强降雨,真的是台风残余云系北上和北方冷空气结合相互作用的结果。7月30日至31日第9号台风“纳沙”和10号台风“海棠”接连登陆福建福清,合并后一路北上影响我国东部18个省(区、市),影响范围之大历史罕见。虽然台风已经停止了编号,但“海棠”减弱变性后的低压系统继续北上,其北部在遭遇西风带高空槽系统和中高纬冷空气后,在华北东北部逐渐发展出新的温带气旋系统,强势北上,携带大量水汽,在东北地区遭遇中高纬冷空气,形成暖锋,在东北地区形成强降雨过程。而内蒙古东南部、辽宁西部的强对流云团组织结构较好,有利于形成持续性的降雨。

所以,台风能影响千里之外的强降雨,这是符合科学规律的。

最近五年来,我国的台风监测和预报技术得到了长足的进步和发展。在持续增强监测能力的过程中,中国气象局台风与海洋气象预报中心于2012年建立了基于目前世界上最为成熟和最具操作性的台风业务定强分析手段——DVORAK技术的台风业务定强分析流程,并开展业务应用。这项技术的严格规范和约束条件,能够让预报员实时了解台风的结构演变,掌握台风强度指数变化,最终合理确定台风强度。

随着台风监测客观定量分析技术和台风预报客观方法技术体系的逐步建立与业务应用,我国台风业务的预报准确率得到了极大提升。

自2012年以来,我国基于欧洲中期天气预报中心等多家模式的集合预报产品,创新发展了基于集合预报的台风路径订正预报方法,使台风路径预报的误差逐渐减小。2012年,我国24小时台风路径预报误差首次低于百公里,达到94公里;2013年至2016年,这个数字又从82公里逐步减小至66.1公里,而2016年美国气象部门24小时台风路径预报误差为80.7公里,日本为77.4公里。

当然,技术的革新与应用并不能解决业务中的所有难题。比如台风在近海区域快速增强时的预报、台风路径的长时效预报等依然是业界普遍存在的难点和重点;台风的强度以及其带来的大风、降雨客观定量预报和精细化分布情况,仍然是预报必须面对的挑战。但这些也正是防灾减灾及公众的需求所在。未来,我国台风预报将实现智能化、网格化,更加精确,但要实现这个目标,仍需一步一个脚印地努力,而非一蹴而就。

(作者:许映龙,系中央气象台首席预报员)

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