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到2020年中国煤电装机规模将在11亿千瓦以内

2017-08-07 17:35:14   中国青年网

近年来,我国用电增速放缓,火电利用小时数逐年降低,煤电规划建设规模远大于用电需求,而电煤价格的大幅波动更使煤电企业经营雪上加霜。煤电过剩会给国家和企业造成巨大浪费,也不利于煤电行业的良性发展。在一系列政策举措的推动下,今年上半年,我国火电完成投资和新增装机规模双降,火电设备利用小时同比提高

5021小时、4739小时、4329小时、4165小时,从2013年至2016年,我国火电利用小时数逐年降低,2016年利用小时数更是创了50年新低。伴随着发电小时的大幅降低,很多煤电企业也陷入了经营困境。为化解煤电产能过剩,促行业转型升级,国家发展改革委、国家能源局等16部门近日联合印发《关于推进供给侧结构性改革 防范化解煤电产能过剩风险的意见》(以下简称《意见》)。《意见》提出,到2020年,全国煤电装机规模控制在11亿千瓦以内,具备条件的煤电机组完成超低排放改造,煤电平均供电煤耗降至310克/千瓦时。

近年来,我国用电增速大幅放缓,火电利用小时数逐年降低,而煤电规划建设规模远大于用电需求。同时,煤电项目从纳入国家发展规划到建成投产需3年至4年的时间,机组惯性投产滞后于市场变化,导致近期煤电投产规模并未减少,给煤电行业带来巨大压力。

发电设备平均利用小时数是发电厂发电设备利用程度的指标。按照电力行业的一般规则,如果某一地区的全年设备利用小时数高于5500小时,表明该地区用电紧张,可继续增加电源投资;如果低于4500小时,则表明该地区电力富余,一般不能再新增发电装机。以5500小时的火电盈亏平衡点测算,目前过剩程度已经超过20%。

与此同时,电煤价格的大幅波动更使煤电企业雪上加霜。今年上半年,全国煤炭供需平衡偏紧,电煤价格高位上涨,煤电企业燃料成本大幅攀升,大部分发电集团煤电板块持续整体亏损,发电行业效益大幅下滑,经营形势严峻。

“由于价格回升,煤炭上下游行业效益出现分化。1月至5月,全国煤炭开采洗选业盈利1233亿元,企业经营效益改善,但煤电行业因成本上涨出现亏损。”国家能源局发展规划司副司长李福龙说。

“煤电具有一定经济竞争力,部分发电企业和地方政府投资冲动不减,造成煤电发电利用小时数连年下降。”国家能源局总工程师韩水表示,在“十三五”电力规划编制过程中,部分地区和发电企业发展煤电的积极性很高,未来几年规划建设的煤电项目仍然很多。煤电过剩会带来巨大浪费,也对煤电行业的良性发展带来很大伤害。因此,需要及时出台政策,化解煤电行业潜在的产能过剩风险。

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