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原标题:智库观察:城镇化,不能偏 城市病,必须治
近日,第一批国家高端智库试点单位——北京大学国家发展研究院宏观经济研究中心组织了“中国经济观察”专题报告会。报告会经济学大咖云集,专家围绕“城市化与土地改革”“推进城镇化建设”“治理大城市病”等问题发言交流。正好小智也在现场,下面就请您跟着小智去听听会上有什么精彩的观点和锐见。
樊纲:人口向大城市集聚还是大趋势
第一批国家高端智库试点单位——中国(深圳)综合开发研究院院长樊纲教授说,从2015年开始,一线城市和和二、三线城市的住宅价格出现了明显分化。在二、三线城市住宅价格仍然保持稳定情况下,一线城市的房价出现了大幅上涨。很多人认为这是因为市场上流通的货币太多,还有人认为是因为一线城市的土地贵造成的。
樊纲认为,任何商品的价格都和货币有关系,货币增加就像“大水漫灌”,如果市场上货币多了却只体现在一线城市的房价上是不合逻辑的,而且这几年货币政策实际上是有所紧缩的。同时,土地贵的原因是开发商预期房价贵,然后才举牌高价收购土地。
可以说,对“城镇化”的认识偏差和盲目跟风导致土地的计划分配有误,因此形成了一线城市的土地供应极为短缺的状况,而住房需求和供给之间出现了极大的缺口,自然会导致一线城市的房价居高不下。当然,除了上述原因之外,地方政府也有可能故意制造紧缺来实现高价售地。
樊纲指出,在人类选择迁移的过程中,由于大城市具有聚集效应,而且人口的聚集会产生更多的创新与思想,所以人口流动会自然地形成两极分化,即大城市流入人口,农村和小城镇流出人口。他认为,目前中国还是应该顺应人口迁移的自然规律,城市规划以“大都市”或者“城市群”为主,采取行政规划、自愿结合等多种形式实现。比如,雄安新区就是一个很好的构想,可以发挥雄安新区的地理区位优势并利用快轨等交通工具,将周边的大城市连接起来形成城市群,提升在经济增长和社会进步中的带动作用。
樊纲(北大国家发展研究院 供图)
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