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跟着汇率去旅行 省出一趟宝岛游
2017-08-06 15:02:05 中国青年网
炎炎夏日来临,不少上班族开始蠢蠢欲动,打算请个年假携全家出国转悠一圈。原本一听到数字就犯困的女白领们,这时也瞪大了眼睛刷起财经新闻。那些口沫横飞的财经评论员对国际形势和汇率走势的长篇大论,在她们脑海中已经转化为两个包包、一双鞋子抑或一张往返机票。是的,今年人民币汇率结束了去年的颓势,尤其对美元涨幅明显。消费者如果在出行前关注下汇率,选对目的地,一番精打细算下来,几乎能省出一趟台湾环岛8日游的游资。
美元贬3%,兑换1万美元省2000人民币
有人说,如今的美元指数就是特朗普执政水平指数。从最近半年美元指数的表现看,特朗普的执政水平实在乏善可陈。截至8月4日18时,美元指数徘徊在92.72附近,这意味着美元指数今年以来的跌幅超过9%。从今年上半年来看,虽然美国经济数据向好,但随着美国就业市场已趋近充分就业状态,对可支配收入乃至消费的提振力将会逐步到达“玻璃天花板”。
反观外围市场,以中国为代表的新兴经济体正在逐步摆脱过去两年的颓势,出现了不同程度的筑底乃至复苏迹象,经济增速的提升空间显然要大于美国。从经济增速提升空间对比来看,显然也会为美元走弱以及非美货币走强埋下伏笔。8月4日央行授权公布的人民币汇率中间价对美元为1美元对6.7132元人民币。全年人民币对美元中间价的最低点出现在1月4日,为1美元对人民币6.9526元。相对于人民币,美元半年贬值超过3%。如果消费者兑换1万美元,现在比年初节省2394元。携程网直飞台北的台湾环岛8日7晚跟团游,售价2099元/人。这意味着,现在全家去美国旅行可以比元旦时省出一个人的宝岛游。
兴业证券分析师郭嘉沂预计,下半年人民币相对美元波动幅度较前几年扩大,建议有去美元国家旅游或乘坐邮轮游的消费者,抓住眼下低位购汇的机会兑换美元现汇或现钞。如果旅游回来没花完,下半年可能还有高位结汇的机会。
欧元涨英镑跌,游牛津剑桥正当时
欧洲的夏季阳光灿烂,温度适宜,是一年中旅游的最佳时节。今年英镑跌、欧元涨的态势让近期赴欧游客更愿意在英国多做停留。总体来看,今年英镑表现疲软,英镑对人民币只在1月下旬和4月至5月期间有两轮上涨,最高涨至5月22日的1英镑对8.9505元人民币,其余时间均围绕8.7附近上下波动。去年此时英国脱欧的消息刚公布一个月,英镑对人民币的汇率水平在8.8左右。一年来英镑对人民币变化不算太大,若考虑通货膨胀因素,可算略有贬值。
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