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金融股调整 沪指3300点关前震荡

2017-08-04 05:32:52   中国青年网

本报讯(记者王大千)金融股连续上涨的势头出现调整,受此影响,沪指在3300点关前保持震荡走势。分析人士认为,金融蓝筹板块在连续上涨后,会有适当调整实属正常,后续大盘是否走稳还需关注蓝筹股行情能否延续。

板块表现方面,钢铁、区块链、有色、稀土永磁等板块涨幅居前;保险、银行、上证超大、上证50等板块跌幅居前。

广发证券认为,市场风格整体转向创业板要满足几个条件,即估值见底、业绩见底或者出现“看长做长”的大逻辑和大故事。从近期上涨成分股的涨幅分布来看,涨的既非“高盈利”也不完全是“低估值”,而更多体现为“超跌”反弹。短期内在市场消化了“超跌反弹”的影响后,创业板指数的走势仍然取决于以上三大条件的变化。

周期股是近期市场的明星板块。对此,招商证券认为,8月周期股依然是超额收益的来源。一方面,正值需求旺季来临前夕,由于2016年固定资产新开工项目计划总投资达50万亿元,同比增速为20%,今年施工项目计划总投资增速大幅回升至20%附近,今年的旺季需求可能大幅超越预期;另一方面,供给角度,2011至2014年市场化出清部分产能,2015年开始供给侧改革行政去产能,今年开始则遭遇“史上最强环保核查”,预计大宗商品的涨幅大概率超出市场预期。而在业绩和解禁减持压力出清之前,成长风格板块则难以看到太大机会。

华鑫证券认为,短期调整后可继续关注周期股。近期周期股受涨价驱动,中报业绩超预期高增长而获得资金青睐。

不过,有分析人士则指出,周期股潜在上行空间有限,追高风险也在增强。银河证券认为,目前A 股已连续反弹两个月,且沪指已创本轮反弹新高,尤其是大盘蓝筹股估值已达到近6年来的高位,资源周期板块价格近两月内也普遍快速反弹两成以上,已部分反映经济基本面稳中有升的状况,因此短期市场出现调整的可能性大幅增加。

展望后市,虽然沪指周三创出2016年以来新高,但市场的活跃度有所降低,主要的原因就在于一线蓝筹做多力度有所下降,资金追涨意愿不足,3300点对于市场来说是一个比较大的压力区,越往上行压力越大,市场迫切需要调整来修复技术指标,舒缓压力。同时,近日沪指冲高回落并伴有成交量能放大,显示有部分获利资金兑现收益,资金追涨意愿降低,预计沪指在3300点附近会有一系列的争夺。

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