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纳斯达克指数创新高 美股酝酿空方情绪

2017-07-26 08:30:06   中国经济网

24日收盘后,谷歌母公司字母表在发布业绩后股价下跌2.2%,拖累纳斯达克100指数期货的表现。亚马逊和脸书公司本周晚些时候将发布业绩。

北美信托资产管理公司发布的季度投资调查报告显示,近三分之二的投资者表示,美国股票市场被高估了,比例为调查史上最高。北美信托资产管理公司表示,尽管投资经理们认为美国股市被高估了,但是基本面、国内生产总值(GDP)增长速度、低通胀以及盈利增长都是股市的利好因素。

这份调查表明,60%的受访者预计美国经济在不远的将来会继续保持稳定增长,但仅有29%的人认为美国经济将加速,上次调查有44%的人认为美国经济将加速。

以高盛首席股票策略师科斯汀领衔的团队在一份研究报告中指出,从2011年开始,标普500指数基于盈利预期的市盈率已经膨胀了80%之多,攀升到历史估值波动区间的第89个百分点处。FactSet的数据显示,目前市场基于近12个月盈利记录的市盈率为22.1,而近十年的平均水平只有16.7。鉴于当下的美股估值已经如此之高,高盛预计到今年年底,标普500指数将下跌大约3%,至2400点。

“我们的经济学家预测美联储在年内会再加息一次,在2018年则会加息四次,超过期货市场交易者们的预期。”上述研究报告写道,“在这种情况下,投资者想要获得任何回报,只能指望盈利的增长,而不能寄希望于市盈率的进一步扩张。”

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