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中国金融业正经历高增长 社科院建议协调金融业与实体经济发展关系
国际在线报道(记者柳青):针对近年来中国金融业表现出的高增长态势,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院10日发表报告认为,随着中国经济进入新常态,应当将金融服务业增加值在国内生产总值中的比重控制在8%左右,进一步协调金融业与实体经济发展关系。
社科院财经战略研究院10日发布的《中国金融业高增长:逻辑与风险》报告披露,2012年至2016年金融业增速均高于工业增速,除2016年外均远高于同期经济增速;近十年来金融业增加值占比翻了一番,从2005年的4%迅速攀升至2015年的8.44%。这一数值不仅高于巴西和俄罗斯等新兴市场经济国家,也高于美国、英国等传统经济发达国家。分析高增长的原因,报告主要撰稿人之一、社科院财经战略研究院副研究员王朝阳说:“应对经济下行,传统的调控模式就是货币增发,带来的是实体部门利润率的下降。当货币增发与实体经济利润率下降相碰撞的时候,我们看到了金融的改革与创新。同时加上房地产的金融化以及证券市场的剧烈波动,当这些因素结合在一起的时候,我们看到的其实是金融体系的内部循环。这种内部循环带来了两个结果,第一个结果是金融信用链条的加长,就是融资成本的上升;同时就是把更多的利润留在了金融体系内部,这种利润就变成了金融业的增加值,金融业就表现出高增长。”
报告建议,在“十三五”期间,金融服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重应保持在8%左右。把金融业占比稳定在8%左右,并不意味着金融发展的停滞,而是把金融工作的重点聚焦于提高金融运行效率和更好服务实体经济上。与此相对应,报告还建议,到“十三五”末,将非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至30%以上。
对此,王朝阳说,这是落实去杠杆、降成本等供给侧结构性改革任务的必然要求,也是落实创新驱动战略和振兴实体经济的必然选择。“非金融企业直接融资占比,这个数字在2015年是24%,为什么我们建议到2020年达到30%?落实供给侧结构性改革,去杠杆的任务要求我们大力发展直接融资的,实施创新驱动,我们知道很多创新的活动是不可能依靠银行贷款来完成的,所以这对我们发展直接融资也提出了要求。”
报告提出,促进金融部门与实体经济之间的协调发展,要坚持稳中求进的总基调,保持战略定力,使需求侧管理与供给侧结构性改革相配合。对于当前的金融去杠杆操作,需要谨慎把握其力度和节奏,既保证不因杠杆的快速去除而影响金融市场稳定,又能够挤压资金在金融体系内空转的空间并迫使其进入实体部门,通过寻求那些富有前景的投资项目进而带动整体经济的转型升级。
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