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原定35分钟谈了两小时 “双普会”能否让美俄关系回暖?

2017-07-10 08:50:46   新华网

(CNN截图)

特朗普与普京,这两位性格鲜明、风格硬朗、意气相近的领导人终于在G20汉堡峰会上实现首次正式会晤。此次面对面交流持续了两个多小时,大大超过了原定的35分钟。众所周知,“双普”之间“隔空秀爱”已久。特朗普曾80多次在推特上公开赞美普京;普京也投桃报李称赞特朗普是“聪明人”,希望俄美关系得到“质的提升”。

相见恨晚的“双普”会面是否意味着美俄已经握手言和,两国关系正在“翻篇”?

相谈甚欢 “双普”表现出“积极的化学作用”?

在G20峰会之前,“双普”已电话交谈多次,互释改善两国关系的信号。会晤之际,特朗普率先向普京示好:“与您在一起非常荣幸。”普京也回应:“很高兴与您见面。”

据CNN报道,在此次闭门会晤中,除了两位领导人外,只有美国国务卿蒂勒森、俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫及双方翻译在场。两人交谈了两个多小时,涉及到叙利亚、乌克兰等地区局势以及网络安全等问题,并宣布达成叙利亚西南部停火协议 。

会晤结束后,蒂勒森向记者陈述情况时,形容特朗普和普京表现出“积极的化学作用”。他还透露,两位总统就外界关注的“俄罗斯干预美国大选”一事交换了看法。特朗普率先提及这一话题;普京否认俄干预美国大选,并要求提出具体指控,特朗普接受了普京的说法。

俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫称,美俄总统在汉堡峰会期间的会晤持续时间长,而且涉及的内容非常具体,具有建设性,双方通过会晤确定了寻求互惠互利的共识。

“恩爱”易秀症结难解 美俄关系能否“翻篇”?

在G20汉堡峰会上,媒体多次捕捉到特朗普和普京“惺惺相惜”的画面。7日早上,两人首次碰面,互相握手致意并坐在同一张桌旁,等待会议开始;英国《每日电讯报》还拍到特朗普在会场上轻拍普京的后背,以示亲热的场景。

然而,“双普”大秀恩爱的背后,美俄之间的症结仍然待解,冰释前嫌也并非易事。虽然此次“双普会”达成了一些“建设性”共识,但专家对会谈能产生实质性结果并不乐观。

首先,美俄之间在乌克兰问题上几乎无解。蒂勒森在G20结束后,于7月9日对乌克兰进行短暂访问。分析人士认为,这是美国对乌克兰的一次安抚,甚至会给乌克兰一些经济支持,也更表明了美国的立场。(发稿时间是10日,请在发稿前看下有无蒂勒森访乌克兰的新消息和成果等)乌克兰问题涉及到俄罗斯的核心战略利益,对美国让步的可能性微乎其微,这点双方心知肚明。特朗普上台前曾期待俄罗斯能够降级乌克兰局势并“归还”克里米亚,不过显而易见的是,普京不会卖给特朗普这个“人情”。

其次,在反恐和解决叙利亚问题上,虽然美俄有可能找到共识、达成妥协,但目前极端组织“伊斯兰国”连遭重创,距离崩溃之日已为时不远,“反恐盟友”内部隐藏的各种矛盾也纷纷浮出水面,美俄都在为“后IS时代”的利益分配各有算盘、暗中博弈,近期双方在叙利亚上空数次上演“非友好接触”。另外在叙总统巴沙尔的去留问题上,美俄之间也难免一番较量。

再者,美国政治精英和大众媒体有着强烈的“反俄情绪”,而且短时间内难以消除。即使在美国对俄经济制裁、俄罗斯干预美国大选这两件事情上,特朗普政府的态度和立场与主流民意不一致,然而,“通俄门”现在仍然不清不楚,尚无定论,特朗普不会冒冒失失将美俄多年的恩恩怨怨一笔勾销。

当前美俄关系陷入低谷,严重缺乏互信。专家表示,“双普”之间友谊能否长久,关键仍要看两个国家在一些重大战略问题上能找到多少共同利益,以及两位元首能否从利益共享共建的过程中获取足够多的政治资本。目前来看,双方关系持续性改善的条件还离成熟很远。

原标题:原定35分钟谈了两小时 “双普会”能否让美俄关系回暖?

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