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美军进驻叙空军基地 “打楔子”还是“建孤岛”?

2017-07-04 08:39:18   国际在线

近日,据俄罗斯媒体报道,叙利亚库尔德武装领导的“叙利亚民主军”知情人士对《消息报》透露,库尔德武装已经向美军转交了从“伊斯兰国”手中夺取的塔卜卡空军基地的支配权。该基地位于拉卡省西部,距拉卡市约60公里。美军目前正在塔卜卡空军基地重建机场,据称美军直升机已经开始进驻这个空军基地,以更加方便执行战斗支援、运输和侦察任务。预计很快,美军无人机、黑鹰直升机甚至是阿帕奇武装直升机也会进驻该机场。

对此,国内有舆论认为美军获得在叙利亚境内的前进机场,是美军即将全面介入叙利亚战局甚至与驻叙俄军直接冲突的前奏。理由是美军已经在叙利亚周边的基地部署了F-15重型战机和F-22隐身战机这类高性能战机,地中海也有航母虎视眈眈,此次在叙利亚境内建立空军基地后,将构成完善的机场网络,有能力发起针对叙政府军的大规模空中战役,并保障美军在叙利亚上空的制空权。不过笔者认为,国人对于这则消息有些过度解读了。

首先,塔卜卡空军基地在2014年8月被极端组织“伊斯兰国”占领,最近才被库尔德武装夺回。在这期间近3年的时间里,机场设施、跑道等并没有得到有效维护,而且很可能在战斗中受到损伤,因此要全面恢复功能就必须进行修缮和重建,尤其是如果要起降先进喷气式战机更是如此。所以在初期阶段该机场只能进驻一些像直升机、轻型无人机这类对起降条件要求不高的飞机,这些飞机可以执行提供近距离空中支援和后勤保障等任务,但对于争夺制空权或者发起大规模空中攻势显然力不从心。

第二,当下的叙利亚政府军已不是内战爆发之初的样子,在俄罗斯空军的强力支援下,叙政府军才得以控制了叙利亚超过60%的国土面积。美军目前在叙利亚的周边确实部署有为数不少的空中力量,但是其在叙利亚的地面部队数量实在不多,据估计只有900人左右,而且美国方面已表示无意再向叙增派地面力量,所以美军才如此倚重库尔德武装力量。美军机连日来多次击落叙政府的无人机和有人机,害怕其地面部队被叙方武装“包饺子”也是重要原因之一。可想而知,一旦美国想现在就跳到台前与叙俄对抗,其地面部队连自保都会成为问题,更不要指望其能担起左右叙利亚地面战局的重任。

第三,美军进驻塔卜卡空军基地确实可谓“近水楼台先得月”,但是由于过于靠前也导致自己被纳入了他方的“射程”。在平时,看似是美军给叙政府打了个“楔子”,可如果爆发全面冲突,这个基地会成为他国领土内的孤岛,极可能面临地面力量的围攻,届时其能发挥的作用会打一个很大的问号。

所以笔者认为,目前塔卜卡空军基地对于美军来说的首要作用应该是保障拉卡战局,同时防止叙利亚政府军或亲政府武装来抢夺胜利果实,只有尽快让美国支持的库尔德武装独立拿下拉卡,美国才能在“后ISIS时代”的叙利亚拥有一席之地。而所谓美国会对叙俄直接开战的说法,现在还言之过早。(文/兰顺正)

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