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文在寅首会特朗普 “相见欢”还是“鸿门宴”?

2017-06-28 16:43:57   国际在线

6月28日,韩国总统文在寅动身前往华盛顿,与美国总统特朗普举行会谈。有心人肯定注意到:这是韩美新政府成立以来两国元首的第一次见面,也创下了韩国总统上任后最快访美的纪录——距离文在寅上任仅仅51天。

这说明韩美两国元首迫切地想交流、想沟通。而他们交流沟通的内容及结果,将对韩美同盟关系乃至地区局势,产生微妙而又不可忽视的影响。

  文在寅访美,最想谈什么?

领导人在出访前,通常会透过媒体来表达对出访的期待。人们注意到,文在寅在行前接受美国媒体采访时说了这样一番话:不会强求在具体事项上获得成果,将着重与特朗普总统构筑友谊和积累信任,在此基础上巩固韩美同盟,然后再讨论解决朝核等问题的共同方案。与此同时,青瓦台发言人也指出,希望此行能够增进互信、深化友谊,就进一步发展韩美同盟关系凝聚共识,巩固两国框架性合作基础。

可以看出,韩方对文在寅访美成果的期待中,有一个最重要的关键词:“韩美同盟”。巩固并发展韩美同盟关系,正是文在寅此行最重要的关切所在。

应该说,韩国目前对美国的协防承诺是存在疑虑的。特朗普上台之后强调“美国优先”,要求美日澳等盟友交“保护费”,不然就要减少驻军,而在韩国部署“萨德”问题上,特朗普也曾要求韩国承担相关费用,这让韩国感到不满和不安:美国承诺的相关安全保障会不会发生变化?近几个月来,虽然美国防长马蒂斯、国务卿蒂勒森先后到访韩国,承诺相关安全保障依然算数,但是如果得到特朗普的亲口承诺,韩国才会真正放下心来。所以文在寅此次访美与特朗普举行会谈,最关切的点,应该会落在确认韩美同盟的价值以及共识方面。

  绕不过去的话题:半岛局势与“萨德”入韩

文在寅在竞选期间曾经主张:韩国应该学着对美国说“不”。当时就有媒体猜测:在朝鲜半岛问题上,特别是在“萨德”入韩问题上,文在寅会展现更多的独立自主外交吗?事实上,这也是在韩美同盟的框架下,文在寅此次访美绕不过去的焦点话题。

值得关注的是,文在寅在访前接受美国媒体采访时曾表示,在朝核问题上,只靠制裁与施压是不能解决的,需要开展对话,他希望年内朝鲜能回到谈判桌前,同时还提出了分阶段解决朝核问题的方案(先冻结、后废除)。在“萨德”入韩问题上,文在寅则采取拖延和模糊策略,比如要求对“萨德”用地进行环境影响评估等。

这样的举动令美方很不满。6月23日,美国18名参议员致函总统特朗普,要求以即将举行的美韩首脑会谈为契机,施压文在寅政府尽快完成在韩部署“萨德”的计划。

可以预见,在美方的步步紧逼之下,文在寅在“萨德”问题上施展缓兵之计的空间越来越小。赶在访美之前,文在寅亮出自己的解决朝核问题的新方案,不排除是为了在与特朗普的讨论中争得更多主动权。

在这样的情势下,韩美双方尽管为这次元首会面做足文章,特朗普更是要在白宫设晚宴款待文在寅,刻意营造一种“盟友相见欢”的氛围,但却掩盖不了“鸿门宴”的气息。

对文在寅而言,此次访美首会特朗普,是努力打开当前韩国复杂外交乱局的重要一步,但是面对美国国内的施压和敲打声,文在寅能否达到他所预想的访问效果,还要看他能在多大程度上顶住特朗普的压力、落实他所希望的韩国更加独立自主的外交理想。(文/盛玉红)

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