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社科院:预计2017年二季度中国GDP增长6.8%
国际在线报道(记者 乔全兴):由中国社会科学院财经战略研究院举办的“宏观经济形势季度分析会(2017年2季度)”27日在北京举行。财经院课题组报告认为,2017年二季度中国经济继续保持稳中向好的态势,初步预计二季度GDP增长6.8%,CPI上涨1.4%。
在当天的分析会上,财经院课题报告组就二季度经济形势作了主题报告。报告指出,二季度中国经济继续保持稳中向好态势。工业生产加快,新动能继续集聚。社科院财经院综合经济战略研究部副主任、研究员汪红驹说:“经济稳中向好,第一个我们从生产指标来看,工业生产增加值这个指标,它在二季度(四、五月份)的时候增长了6.5%,比去年同期提高了0.5个百分点,如果1到5月份累计的同比增速就保持在6.7%了,也比去年同期高,这说明我们二季度,工业生产总值比去年有比较大的改善;从结构上来看,我们的新兴产品继续保持高速增长,像无人机、工业机器人、新能源汽车等体现新产品、新技术、新动能的这些产品均保持比较高的增长。”
报告同时指出,二季度中国固定资产投资、房地产投资、民间投资增速略有提高。在国际油价回落、补库存力度减弱、货币供应速度减缓等因素共同作用下,工业生产出厂价格指数回落。企业利润恢复性上涨,财政收入状况好转,出口增速上升,进口增速回落,贸易顺差扩大。报告预计,二季度GDP增长6.8%,消费物价指数上涨1.4%。汪红驹说:“因国际经济好转,国际油价回落,国内稳增长政策的空间和潜力有所加大,宏观政策应付各种意外冲击的能力加强。下半年应抓住经济稳中趋好的机遇,推进供给侧结构改革,第一个就是精准平衡防风险和稳增长的关系,第二个要坚持稳健中性的货币政策,同时要注意货币政策的灵活性,第三个要融合监管框架,统一监管标准,从机构监管转为功能监管。”
而对于未来的长期经济走势,国家发改委对外经济研究所副所长、研究员吴涧生说:“我更乐观的预期在‘十三五’期间,未来的三年,到2019年、2020年,我们中国的经济(增速)有可能破7,重新登上7的宝座,是完全有可能的。”
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