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印度的机遇何在?与其玩平衡,不如向东看

2017-06-27 08:18:33   国际在线

6月25日这一天,国际媒体报道了两件与印度有关的新闻:一件是印度总理莫迪到访美国,与特朗普举行首次会晤,印媒称两人之间建立“温暖的私人关系”;另一件是为期两天的第二届中印智库论坛在北京闭幕,双方就战略互通、贸易与投资合作、人文交流、科学与技术等多个议题进行了沟通和研讨。

这两件事之间是否存在微妙的联系?笔者不好下断言,但是很自然地联想到2015年10月中印陆军在云南举行反恐联合训练的同时,印度与美日两国在印度洋孟加拉湾举行了“马拉巴尔”联合军演。当时,就有媒体指出,这是印度在中国与美国之间玩平衡。这一次,或许也不例外。

自印度首任总理尼赫鲁提出不结盟政策以来,印度为了保持战略自主性,一直努力推进“全方位外交”和“等距离外交”。通俗地说,这一外交目标其实就是要把握好与各大国交往的尺度,不体现明显的偏向,从而利用大国间的相互竞争,来保证印度的国家安全。从现实情况来看,美国作为印度重要的军事合作伙伴,中国作为印度第一大贸易伙伴,如何在中美之间寻求平衡、助推“印度梦”的实现,自然成为印度外交政策的主要考量。

这一点,同样为雄心勃勃的莫迪所继承。莫迪提出了“印度制造”计划,希望将印度打造成为“世界制造中心”,最终实现成为全球超级大国的“印度梦”。为此,他大刀阔斧地实施改革,比如出台 “废钞令”,打击腐败和黑钱交易;制定与实施“数字印度”、“智慧城市”等多项发展规划……但是目前印度经济并未见明显好转。根据印度中央统计局近日公布的数据,印度2016-2017财年第四季度 GDP增速为6.1%,创两年多以来最低增速。

看来,要实现“印度梦”,印度的目光必须看得更远。

往西看,美国可以提供助力么?如果说奥巴马时期支持“印度制造”计划,甚至考虑把F-16或F-18战机生产线移到印度的话,那么特朗普上台后,美印之间的关系与合作显然面临着变数。特朗普强调“美国优先”,要求制造业移回美国,“用美国人、买美国货”,同时紧缩核发H-1B签证,致使印度软件外包产业受到严重冲击。

此次特朗普与莫迪的首次会晤,就是在这样一些不和谐声中展开的。虽然媒体对此次会晤用了不少溢美之词,但从会谈结果来看,美国除了卖给印度军火外,并没有在莫迪最关心的“印度制造”方面提供什么实质性的支持。原因不言自明:在“美国优先”思维之下,“印度制造”就是来抢饭碗的。

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