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外媒:法国不会帮助英国“软退欧”

2017-06-16 08:15:50   新华网

英国金融时报网14日发表该报评论员吉迪恩·拉赫曼撰写的题为《法国不会帮助英国“软退欧”》的文章。文章说,法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙需要向法国选民表明,退出欧盟带来的只有痛苦,他没有多少动力帮助英国实现“软退欧”。我们现在拥有强大而稳定的领导力,不过是在法国,而非英国。英国首相特里萨·梅将在英国大选后领导力被严重削弱的情况下展开英国退欧谈判。相比之下,马克龙有望在议会选举中赢得绝对多数席位,这种局面正是梅曾经梦寐以求的。

法英两国领导人13日在巴黎举行了会谈。英国留欧阵营的一些想入非非的想法是,领导力遭到削弱的梅加上领导力强大的马克龙可能有助于让英国避免“硬退欧”。但这不太可能。马克龙没有多少动力帮助英国摆脱困境,即便他有可能做到这一点。实际上,对马克龙来说,英国退欧看起来越来越像是一个历史性机遇,而非抱憾的理由。

马克龙提出的法国复兴计划以欧盟为核心。在选举获胜的当天晚上,马克龙在欧盟盟歌《欢乐颂》声中走上演讲台。但如果英国退欧能够顺利进行,他在复苏的欧盟内部复苏法国的愿景实际上更容易实现。

马克龙代表着法国政界中坚信“深化欧洲一体化”的派别。他希望加深欧盟在防务和财政方面的一体化,甚至还主张设立欧元区财政部长。

传统而言,英国扮演着制约欧洲联邦主义的角色。一个没有英国的欧盟将会更容易接受法国关于经济一体化、保护欧洲市场以及建立欧盟防御认同的观点。但推进联邦主义议程的机遇之窗可能相对较小。这让马克龙政府更有理由不允许英国退欧进程拖延多年。

对马克龙来说,让人们认为英国会因退欧而受损也有利于一个至关重要的国内政治目的。他在总统大选中的对手马琳·勒庞将英国退欧誉为法国的榜样。

马克龙需要向法国选民表明,退出欧盟带来的只有痛苦。与此同时,如果能够让欧盟两大核心国家——法国和德国恢复合作关系,马克龙就能够让欧洲一体化事业重新受到法国民众的欢迎。

随着英国退欧,重启法德引擎的几率就大得多了——法德引擎传统上推动了欧洲的一体化。鉴于英国退欧和特朗普当选美国总统,德国人如今更容易接受法国的示好。德国总理安格拉·默克尔在最近的一场演讲中表示,英国和美国不再是可靠的合作伙伴,但她同时表示,有必要与法国展开合作。最近的一项民调显示,94%的德国人信任法国,同时60%的德国人信任英国,而信任美国的德国人比例只有21%。

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