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国际在线报道(记者 肖中仁):中国国家发展改革委网站24日刊文指出,中国杠杆率水平并不高,位于主要经济体的中等水平,降杠杆的成效正在显现,债务风险总体可控。
文章中说,中国的降杠杆成效显现。根据国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据,截至2016年三季度末,中国总体杠杆率为255.6%,而同期美国为255.7%,英国为283.1%,法国为299.9%,加拿大为301.1%;同为东亚国家的日本为372.5%;主要发达经济体平均为279.2%,都要高于中国的水平。
从变化趋势看,中国总杠杆率上升速度明显放缓,正趋于稳定。根据国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据,截至2016年三季度末,中国总体杠杆率同比增幅较上季度末下降2.5个百分点,连续两个季度保持下降趋势;环比增幅较上季度末下降1.3个百分点,连续三个季度保持下降趋势。其次,中国企业杠杆率开始下降。2017年3月末,中国规模以上工业企业资产负债率同比下降0.7个百分点,企业微观层面的杠杆率也呈下降趋势。
文章还指出,中国企业债务风险总体安全可控。从经济结构看,中国储蓄率比较高,达50%左右,显著高于国际平均水平。从金融结构看,中国是以银行信贷等间接融资为主的金融体系,这种金融体系中企业的负债水平相对较高。从国际经验看,由外债引发的危机要远多于内债。中国债务主要是内债,外债在总债务中的比重很低,并且中国杠杆率有高储蓄率作为支撑,这与低储蓄率条件下高杠杆风险有明显不同,引发系统性风险的可能性较低。并且随着供给侧结构性改革的推进,企业经营效益明显改善,中国债务偿还能力和抵御负面冲击的能力都进一步增强。因而中国债务风险总体可控。
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