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新闻分析:房地产投资增速提高是前期市场延续效应

2017-05-17 08:06:07   新华网

新华社北京5月16日电 新闻分析:房地产投资增速提高是前期市场延续效应

新华社记者陈炜伟、王优玲

国家统计局近日发布了4月份主要宏观经济数据,其中,房地产投资增速提高引发关注。在全国多地加码楼市调控的背景下,房地产投资增速为何有所加快?投资领域出现了哪些趋势性变化?

数据显示,1至4月份,全国固定资产投资同比增长8.9%,增速比一季度低0.3个百分点,但房地产开发投资同比增长9.3%,增速比1至3月份提高0.2个百分点。

专家分析,增速加快主要是前期房地产市场的延续效应。国家统计局新闻发言人邢志宏分析,去年,全国商品房销售面积同比增长22.5%,房地产市场出现了比较强的景气局面,很多房地产企业加大了投资力度,很多在建项目仍在进行。

“投资项目有周期性,一旦开工需要延续一段时间。所以,目前房地产投资的增长可以说是这种周期性的延续。”邢志宏说。

今年3月以来,全国超过50个城市出台限购、限贷、限价、限售、限商等措施,加码楼市调控。其中,北京、广州、厦门、杭州、深圳等一二线热点城市房地产调控政策强力升级、严堵政策漏洞;政策调控地域范围从一线城市和部分热点二线城市,扩展到一些三四线城市。

中国人民大学国际货币研究所副所长向松祚说,从广度和深度来看,此轮房地产调控政策堪称“史上最严”,标志着新一轮房地产调控态势已然形成。

国家统计局国民经济综合统计司副司长毛盛勇介绍,新一轮调控措施对房价和其他房地产相关指标的影响,可能在4月份以后陆续显现。下一阶段,房地产成交面积增速可能有所放缓,一定程度上将影响企业投资的积极性。而一些热点城市有计划地加大了土地供应,有利于推动房地产投资的增加。房地产投资增速下一步还有待继续观察。

事实上,房地产投资中的一些指标增速已经出现了回落。比如,房地产投资中占比超过60%的住宅投资,1至4月增速比1至3月回落0.6个百分点。同时,房屋新开工面积、商品房销售面积、房地产开发企业到位资金等指标增速也有回落。

相比于房地产,基础设施和制造业在总体投资中占比更大。从4月份数据来看,投资总体增速虽然略有回落,但也保持了相对平稳,且内部结构正在持续优化。

今年前4个月,房地产投资对全部投资增长的贡献率为20.1%,拉动投资增长1.8个百分点。同期,基础设施投资对全部投资增长的贡献率为48%,拉动投资增长4.3个百分点。

1至4月份,基础设施投资高位运行,特别是在短板领域的投资力度进一步加强。其中,生态保护和环境治理业、公共设施管理业、道路运输业等投资增速都超过20%。

制造业投资方面,尽管1至4月份增速比一季度低0.9个百分点,但体现新动能的制造业投资快速增长。当期,高技术制造业投资同比增长22.6%,增速比全部制造业投资高17.7个百分点。

值得注意的是,在投资总体平稳的情况下,民间投资出现短期波动。1至4月份,民间投资同比增长6.9%,尽管增速比去年全年提高了3.7个百分点,但与一季度相比有所回落。

邢志宏说,去年国家出台了一系列促进民间投资健康发展的政策措施,但还需加大政策落实力度,继续深化简政放权改革。此外,要不断从融资环境、信用体系等方面给民间投资营造更好的发展环境,激发内在动力,促进有效投资的快速增长。

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