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勇当“带头大哥” 日本能“救活”TPP吗?

2017-04-26 06:53:09   新华网

在美国重回TPP的希望落空后,日本政府并没有“死心”,转而勇当“带头大哥”,欲引领无美国的“11国版TPP”。

日本副首相兼财务相麻生太郎近日在纽约发表演讲,就美国退出的“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP)表示,“我们将在5月份的亚太经合组织会议上,就(除美国外的)11个成员国的TPP开始谈判”。而日本首相安倍晋三此前曾表示,TPP在没有美国的情况下是“无意义的”。

日本政府在TPP的立场上为何来了个180度的转变?这个转变能“救活”TPP吗?

积极“接盘” 日本拟牵头重启TPP

美国退出后,TPP剩余的11个成员国将于5月下旬在越南举行部长级会议。日本政府将力争与其他成员国讨论没有美国的TPP生效方法。麻生太郎表示,“如果进行多边谈判,即使日本在日美间谈判中有所损失,也还有可能从他国获利。但如果是双边谈判的话则无法走到这一步”。言语间对于日美自由贸易协定(FTA)等双边协定表现出慎重姿态,对TPP这一多边协定仍然抱有期待。

4月20日,日本内阁官房长官菅义伟也在记者会上对没有美国的TPP协定生效表现出积极意愿,称“不排除一切可能性”。按规定,在TPP正式签署之日起的2年内,如果初始成员国未全部走完国内流程,则TPP要生效必须满足两大条件:至少6个初始成员国通过国内审批满60天,且其2013年国内生产总值合计占全部成员国的85%以上。

然而,经济总量最大的美国退出后,则意味着TPP这份覆盖全球40%经济产出的贸易协定可能将在相当长一段时间内“玩不下去”。

日本为什么要做TPP的“带头大哥”?

日本政府不再坚持要求美国回归TPP,转而勇当“带头大哥”,引领“11国版TPP”,其背后有着深层次的原因。

首先,是为了谋求日本在亚太地区区域经济一体化的主导权。主导整个东亚是日本一直以来的愿望,而这次“接盘”则是日本实现这一愿望的良好机遇。日本欲通过谋求TPP的领导权,在贸易规则制定方面争得更大影响力和话语权。

其次,TPP对日本经济和首相安倍晋三的政治生命都至关重要。作为高度依赖贸易的典型外向型经济体,日本需要更高水平、更广范围的自贸协定,TPP可为日本经济强劲增长打下基础。更重要的是,TPP还是“安倍经济学”的基础,而“安倍经济学”的效果如何,直接影响安倍的政治前途。

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