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出口旺盛拉动澳大利亚经济增长

2017-09-15 07:16:52   中国经济网

经济日报堪培拉电 记者翁东辉报道:澳大利亚国家统计局最新发布的统计数据显示,受益于出口旺盛势头,澳大利亚今年二季度GDP环比增长0.8%,同比增长1.8%。这是澳大利亚经济连续26年实现增长。

统计数据显示,澳大利亚出口在二季度增长了2.7%,进口增长1.2%,虽然出口与进口价格比率下降6%,但出口数量有了较大幅增长。研究分析认为,净出口对澳大利亚GDP的贡献率达到0.3%。在澳大利亚出口产品中,大宗商品地位尤其重要。随着全球经济复苏以及亚洲市场需求回升,大宗商品价格在近期得到提振,比如铜价近来就触及了3年来新高。这些利好改善了澳大利亚出口前景,从而为澳大利亚经济增长提供了支持。另一个拉动澳大利亚经济增长的因素是基建投资。近年来,澳大利亚联邦及州政府加大了在公路、铁路等方面的投资。今年5月份,澳大利亚政府宣布了未来10年将投资750亿澳元用于重大基础建设项目的计划,包括内陆铁路,以及可能购入雪山水电工程计划更多权益等,可以说大规模基建投资将开启澳大利亚经济下一个增长阶段。据西太平洋银行预计,基建投资将为澳大利亚GDP贡献0.5%。

尽管澳大利亚经济保持增长,但也存在着不确定因素。首先,近期澳元汇率坚挺可能影响出口竞争力。今年以来,澳元对美元汇率上涨已经超过10%,此前1美元对澳元汇率已经突破了0.8的关口,这不利于澳大利亚产品的出口。其次,澳大利亚个人收入增长较慢,特别是工资增幅有限,抑制了消费增长。数据显示,过去一年中,澳大利亚人均收入仅增长了0.1%,同期通货膨胀率为1.9%,导致居民家庭支出减少。同时,澳大利亚的劳动生产率在今年二季度下降了0.3%,较过去一年降幅预计在0.5%左右。此外,近年来澳大利亚房产价格出现较快上涨,悉尼、墨尔本等地的上涨幅度更是惊人。虽然澳大利亚政府已经出台了一系列措施稳定房价,但普通家庭的负债率仍然较高,这也是澳大利亚经济存在的一个隐患。

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