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“泰利”将发展为超强台风 双台风组团影响华东华南

2017-09-12 17:03:19   中国青年网

据中央气象台消息,今天上午10时,中央气象台继续发布台风蓝色预警,今年第18号台风“泰利”强度继续增强,最强可达强台风级或超强台风级。另外,目前在菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面上有一低压系统活动,有可能在未来12至24小时内发展为今年第19号台风,后期趋近华南沿海。

图片来源:中央气象台网站。

9月9日晚上,今年第18号台风“泰利”在西北太平洋洋面生成,11日晚上加强为台风级别。今天上午10时,中央气象台继续发布台风蓝色预警:预计,“泰利”将以每小时25~30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度继续增强,最强可达强台风级或超强台风级(14~16级,45~52米/秒),逐渐向浙闽沿海靠近,并将于14日夜间到15日早晨在在福建北部到浙江一带沿海登陆(台风级或强台风级13~15级,40~48米/秒),也有可能于15日在浙江近海北上,以后转向东北方向移动。

预计,菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面上的低压系统活动将以每小时10~15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐加强,有可能在未来12至24小时内发展为今年第19号台风,并将于13日早晨进入南海东部海面,强度继续加强,并逐渐向我国华南沿海靠近。

据台风专家介绍,目前来看,第18号台风“泰利”的路径预报较前期调整较大,北调明显,加上其西侧低压的发展,在多因素的制约下,两者未来的发展形势具有不确定性。

其一,双台风相互作用,组团影响变数大。“泰利”西侧即将生成今年第19号台风,两者之间的距离约为1000公里。未来双台风之间的相互作用,对“泰利”的移速、强度、路径等方面均会造成一定影响。

其二,“泰利”强度持续发展。由于有利的环流形势,“泰利”的强度将持续发展,有可能成为今年以来首个超强台风。另外,准19号台风未来在南海海域强度也可能达到强台风级。

其三,双台风风雨将影响多地。最新预报显示,“泰利”和准19号台风将分别于14日、15日登陆或影响华东、华南地区。受双台风影响,台湾、浙江、福建以及广东、海南等地将有较强降雨,我国东部和南部海域及沿海将有大风,强风影响时间长。

专家建议请台湾、福建、浙江、上海等地的公众及时做好各项台风防御措施,加强防范暴雨可能引发的城市内涝、山洪、滑坡等灾害;沿海地区需做好渔船和海上作业人员回港避风、沿海旅游人员转移工作。

截至9月12日,西北太平洋及南海已有18个台风生成,在这之中,今年登陆我国的台风已有7个台风(苗柏、洛克、纳沙、海棠、天鸽、帕卡和玛娃),比多年同期平均(5.3个)偏多1.7个。

据统计,今年台风的生成呈现出阶段性集中的特点,其中7月份有8个台风生成,追平历史上7月份台风生成个数最多的记录。

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