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经济运行稳中趋好 楼市降温实属正常

2017-08-15 23:11:17   中国经济网

经济日报-中国经济网8月15日讯 (记者 祝君壁)国家统计局近日发布7月份国民经济运行数据显示,全国规模以上工业增加值小幅回落1.2个百分点,经济运行保持在合理区间。1至7月份,全国房地产开发投资同比增长7.9%,增速比1至6月份回落0.6个百分点,商品房待售面积比6月末减少1081万平方米。对此国家统计局新闻发言人毛盛勇表示,经过本轮调控,当前我国房地产市场过热局面得到一定程度降温,总体运行平稳。

“在目前国内经济稳中向好、结构调整深化的发展态势进一步延续的情况下,房地产投资增速趋缓实属正常现象。”国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所副所长邓郁松告诉经济日报记者,“目前中国城镇户均住房已超过1.0套,基本上解决了供不应求的问题,进入了总量基本平衡、区域出现分化的新阶段。今后,市场很难出现投资高增长、销售高增长、房价高涨幅的‘三高特征’。”

据毛盛勇介绍,目前一线城市和热点二线城市房价过快上涨的局面得到了控制,投机性、投资性的购房需求大幅减少;三四线城市房地产去库存工作也在有效推进。1至7月份房地产开发投资增速虽然比上半年有所放缓,但比去年同期有所提高。所以,房地产市场尽管有所降温,但总体运行比较平稳。

“今年上半年,房地产对经济增长的贡献率是6.2%,与去年同期8.2%的贡献率相比,在房地产对经济增长的贡献率下降2个百分点的情况下,经济增长速度还提高了0.2个百分点。”毛盛勇说,“这说明房地产市场的降温或者是适度降温,并不必然会下拉经济增长速度。随着各地推出新举措,加快推进房地产市场长效机制建设,整个房地产市场会有更好、更良性的发展。”

对于下一步房地产市场的走向,毛盛勇表示,随着供给侧结构性改革的推进,特别是在加快研究推出房地产市场平稳健康运行的制度设计下,很多地方都在按照中央提出来的“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”这个基本定位,结合当地的实际,纷纷推出一些新的尝试举措。“这实际上是加快推进房地产市场长效机制建设的一些有益尝试,房地产市场下一步平稳健康运行的态势会得到加强。”

对此,方正证券房地产行业首席分析师夏磊表示,行至年中,房地产调控效果明显,“在‘房子不是用来炒的’政策方向指引下,一二线的限购限贷持续,打击炒房的力度不变。三四线热度上升的同时,也会引起部分城市主动收紧限购限贷。”夏磊认为,伴随房贷利率上行,下半年房地产市场稳中有降,居民的购房更加理性,房企拿地不再冲动,楼市将回归平稳的市场氛围。

“未来房地产市场除了投资增速回落,房屋新开工面积绝对量、新建房屋销售面积以及竣工面积都会下降,正常情况下房价涨幅也要下降。”邓郁松说,“从长期看,房价的涨幅和收入涨幅是一致的,收入涨幅最高的时候通常也是房价涨幅较高的阶段。随着我国经济进入中高速增长阶段,经济增速从10%下降到6.5%左右,居民收入增速也会有所回落。从基本面来说,支撑房价高增长的要素已经发生显著变化。”

邓郁松表示,下一步应高度关注房地产市场发展阶段变化,“建立人地挂钩机制,防范供给过剩风险和因供给不足造成的房价过高问题。同时要防范流动性风险,不管是开发企业还是居民购房,都高度依赖金融支持,因此需要保持金融政策的相对稳定。”

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