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巴曙松:部分城市房价上涨压力大的秘密

2017-08-11 16:35:40   中国经济网

城市群是一个更加多元、开放,更加富有容量的地理空间。

2017年以来,中国的房地产调控力度持续加大,出台一系列严厉调控政策的城市,呈现出新的特点,其中最为明显的,就是大都市圈的中心及其周边城市的房价上涨压力大。这昭示着,中国的城镇化已经转移到以大都市圈为重要推动力的新阶段,也意味着中国下一步在设计房地产调控的长效机制时,需要充分考虑这一新的特性。

从城市发展的历史看,在现代化的交通、通讯和信息技术条件下,城市的边界正在变得模糊。在海运港口运输时代,最大、通常也是最早的大型都市商业中心往往临海而建,人口在此集中;在汽车运输时代,则是城市化向郊区扩展的阶段;在航空运输时代,则是大都市区进一步向大型化发展的阶段,人口和产业在地理空间上的重新布局进一步扩展,而中国这一轮的房地产调控最典型的特征就在大都市圈。中国大都市圈的发展有何重点?我们又该如何顺应这一趋势呢?

哪些城市的房地产调控压力大?

从这一轮房价调控的趋势,环一线城市圈效应进一步显现,许多在此前的房地产调控中可能一直名不见经传的、围绕在一些一线城市周边的中小城市,开始进入到调控压力大的城市行列,这也显示出中国的城镇化进入到以城市群为载体的新阶段。

2017年以来特大城市的产业、人口外迁,以及随之而来的购房需求外溢,使城市圈效应进入新的阶段,下一步房地产政策的重点应当顺应这一市场趋势,打破行政区划的限制,完善环一线城市圈为代表的城市群基础设施,对各个城市合理进行功能定位。

7月份,在房地产调控政策作用下,15个一线和热点二线城市房地产市场继续保持稳定态势。在供给端,北京、深圳等地限价政策明令:备案价格不可高于周边同类型住房价格,房价备案后一定时间内不得上调,违者暂缓发放预售许可证,不予办理网签;在需求端,限购限贷及限售政策强调“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”,有效降低了市场的投资属性。供需双控的政策下,新房供给和需求热情有所缓和,导致成交量启稳,而三四线城市则得益于去库存政策的推动,保持量价齐升态势。

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